LOR2 notices continue to flash for NSW and QLD for this Thursday 7th Nov 2024

Four days ago, Paul posted an article here that showed a string of market notices about forecasted LOR2 conditions in NSW and QLD this coming Thursday.

Checking back in today, we can see that the LOR notices have continued to flicker and flash. The screenshot below shows the volume of these market notices from the AEMO over the past 7 days. It shows 74 market notices containing the phrase ‘LOR’.

All market notices that contain the phrase ‘LOR’ in the past 7 days.

Source: ez2view’s AEMO Market Notices Widget

In the next few charts, we’ll see the trend in forecast changes for several different measures, as they relate to Thursday morning and afternoon in NSW and QLD.

We’ll start with an updated look at how the LOR conditions have been changing within the three LOR tiers, for the two regions. In these screenshots, yellow represents a forecast LOR1, orange represents a forecast LOR2, and red represents a forecast LOR3.

The forecast convergence of LOR notices for NSW (top) and QLD (bottom).

Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget

Next we’ll look at the forecast convergence of surplus generation* in each of these regions, as published in STPASA. The asterisk is because the numbers show the projected deficit in available generation vs demand in both regions.

The current STPASA run, as of midday today, is projecting ‘surplus generation’ to hit a low of -1,564 MW in NSW for 16:30 on Thursday (NEM time) and to hit a low of -294 MW in QLD for 18:30 on Thursday (NEM time).

The forecast convergence of surplus generation for NSW (top) and QLD (bottom). Note that both charts are autoscaled, hence colour scales are different on each chart.

Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget

We should keep in mind that the LOR forecast mechanism is meant to act as a signal – that a market response is being sought to alleviate projected supply-demand tightness, where and as possible.

As is evident in the charts above, the market has yet to respond – but we will be keeping an eye on how these forecasts continue to converge on the actual outcome, as time approaches.