Load shedding (LOR3) projected for NSW on 26 November 2024

Market notice 120671 has alerted the market to a projected LOR3 situation on the 26th November 2024.

The LOR3  (Lack of Reserve level 3) is declared (in a forecast timeframe) when projected reserves are insufficient to meet forecast demand.

Now, before we stock up on diesel generators for the home, we remind ourselves that the STPASA outlooks are intended to provide a signal to the market on what is needed – in this case, energy supply. It can be expected that over the coming days the situation will change as the market responds.

The market notice declaring the LOR3 contained the following:

MARKET NOTICE 120671
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Notice ID 120671
Notice Type ID LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Notice Type Description MARKET
Issue Date Tuesday, 19 November 2024
External Reference STPASA - Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 26/11/2024
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AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR3 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following period:

From 1600 hrs to 1900 hrs 26/11/2024. 
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 199 MW at 1730 hrs.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

The projected LOR3 periods show up as red when viewing the STPASA timeframe in ez2view’s forecast convergence widget.

Projected LOR3 for NSW on the 26th.

The situation appears, at this stage, to be related to a combination of factors including these two that stood out upon initial analysis:

1. Low wind turbine generation is forecast.
2. Bayswater Unit 3 has announced that it will take an unplanned forced outage in the most recent MTPASA unit availability information (760 MW max capacity). Vales Point 6, Bayswater Unit 2 and Eararing 3, and Tallawarra 1 (totalling 2,630MW) are on planned outages.