This morning’s STPASA projection from 04:00 triggered a market notice update to the forecast of load shedding.
On Sunday we observed that the forecast for load shedding (for Wednesday the 27th) had eclipsed 1,000 MW in Forecast load shedding (i.e. LOR3) in NSW on Wednesday 27th November 2024 now above 1,000MW.
Market Notice 120894, released on Monday at 04:37, updates the outlook to anticipate a maximum of 1,731 MW of load that may be needed to be interrupted (up from 1,052MW).
Additionally, the time period for LOR3 conditions has been extended +30 minutes either side, now spanning from 11:30 (market time) to 19:30.
MARKET NOTICE 120894 ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Notice ID 120894 Notice Type ID LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3 Notice Type Description MARKET Issue Date Monday, 25 November 2024 External Reference STPASA - Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 27/11/2024 ________________________________________________________________________________________________ AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE The Forecast LOR3 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 120879 has been updated at 0430 hrs on 25/11/2024 to the following: [1.] From 1130 hrs 27/11/2024 to 1930 hrs 27/11/2024. The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 1731 MW at 1430 hrs. AEMO is seeking a market response. AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event. Manager NEM Real Time Operations
These alerts are intended to facilitate a market response and yet, as Paul noted, these magnitudes will require a considerable response.
Thankfully some movement appears to have already occurred in the 08:00 STPASA outlook with load shedding and lack of reserve levels reducing:
Between the relevant STPASA runs a number of NSW transmission outages affecting lines in both the north and south of the state were removed or deferred from AEMO’s schedule. Looks like that played a significant part in reducing the amount of projected load shedding.