Two days ago we noted that ‘AEMO issues (its 3rd ever) ‘Minimum System Load’ alert for Victoria … for Friday 27th September 2024’.
… at that time, the AEMO had forecast that the demand would drop down to be as low as 1,879MW at 13:30.
So, with most attention on tomorrow, it’s worth a quick recap to note that:
1) The lowest demand today for VIC was 1,878MW for the 11:35 dispatch interval
(a) … measuring ‘Market Demand’;
(b) so considerably above the all-time minimum, discussed earlier.
2) At the 13:30 dispatch interval, the ‘Market Demand’ was 2,044MW.
(a) so 165MW above the AEMO forecast two days earlier (i.e. 1,879MW at 13:30).
(b) though you could also say the AEMO forecast low point was only 1MW off the actual low point … just that the actual low point was ~2 hours earlier than forecast.
Here’s a snapshot of NEMwatch at 13:05 showing the broad situation:
Not much supply, apart from Brown Coal (2,255MW FinalMW at 11:35) and Rooftop PV (an estimate of 3,123MW at 11:30). So an element of net export at that time.
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