On Friday 27th September 2024, VIC ‘Market Demand’ dropped as low as 1,878MW

Two days ago we noted that ‘AEMO issues (its 3rd ever) ‘Minimum System Load’ alert for Victoria … for Friday 27th September 2024’.

… at that time, the AEMO had forecast that the demand would drop down to be as low as 1,879MW at 13:30.

So, with most attention on tomorrow, it’s worth a quick recap to note that:

1)  The lowest demand today for VIC was 1,878MW for the 11:35 dispatch interval

(a)  … measuring ‘Market Demand’;

(b)  so considerably above the all-time minimum, discussed earlier.

2)  At the 13:30 dispatch interval, the ‘Market Demand’ was 2,044MW.

(a)  so 165MW above the AEMO forecast two days earlier (i.e. 1,879MW at 13:30).

(b)  though you could also say the AEMO forecast low point was only 1MW off the actual low point … just that the actual low point was ~2 hours earlier than forecast.

Here’s a snapshot of NEMwatch at 13:05 showing the broad situation:

Not much supply, apart from Brown Coal (2,255MW FinalMW at 11:35) and Rooftop PV (an estimate of 3,123MW at 11:30).   So an element of net export at that time.