In the press release, the AEMO cite weather and reduced gas demand as reasons for the underlying change in dynamics:
“Favourable weather conditions toward the end of winter and reduced gas generation demand have allowed Iona to start refilling its storage capacity. Iona inventory is currently sitting at 44% or 10,736 TJ, while Newcastle LNG is currently holding 556 TJ, which is 36% full.”
Coincidentally, Goeff Chambers and Colin Packham published the article ‘Perfect storm’ warning issued to Australia’s east coast energy market last night on The Australian website. It quoted several energy executives who voiced that concerns over gas production and infrastructure still lingered, lamenting that the east coast had “dodged a winter bullet”.
Dan is a Market Analyst, who joined Global-Roam in June 2013.
He departed (and returned) for a couple of brief stints overseas, before rejoining the team permanently in late 2019. Alongside his work at Global-Roam, he has undertaken short-term contract roles as an analyst and researcher in various areas of the energy sector. Dan graduated from the Master of Sustainable Energy program at the University of Queensland in 2024.
Recent invitations (from COAG Energy Council and AEMO) prompt some further analysis of the data set assembled for the GSD2019 in order to understand more about one of the challenges in balancing Supply and Demand in the NEM 2.0 world.
Sunday 15th August saw lowest level of Operational Demand in the NEM for a winter period, NEM-wide. This also led to a number of other outcomes (including higher renewable penetration, negative prices, … and chatter on social media).
It’s taken a while to find the time – but today I’m posting this next analytical piece (Part 3) that seeks to understand what happened on Sunday 24th January 2021 with the NEM-wide SCADA Failure, which contributed to the price spike that occurred in QLD by virtue of what it did to the ‘Q>>NIL_CLWU_RGLC’ constraint equation.
A comparison of the output of the two different estimates now available for aggregate state-wide output from small-scale solar PV systems – the ARENA-funded APVI method, and a new method from AEMO
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