This morning we have already posted the article ‘… but ER02 return to service hit a snag (Thu 16th May 2024) – now possibly out until Tue 21st May 2024’, … and followed on to write how this extended outage has mixed with low wind and solar forecast for Monday morning 20th May to deliver a new ‘forecast LOR2’ condition for NSW.
At 11:21 this morning the AEMO published an update on the market of a forecast LOR2 condition for Monday morning 20th May 2024:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 17/05/2024 11:21:55
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Notice ID : 116642
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 17/05/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 20/05/2024
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 116641 has been updated at 1000 hrs 17/05/2024 to the following:
From 0600 hrs 20/05/2024 to 0830 hrs 20/05/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1240 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 868 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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Note that:
1) the ‘minimum capacity reserve available’ has dropped from 1121MW (in MN116641 at 08:56) to be 868MW (in MN116642 at 11:21):
(a) i.e. down 253MW.
(b) though still well above 0MW
2) and also that the duration of the tightness has extended (now 06:00 to 08:00)
3) Again – readers should remember that the purpose of these forecasts from the AEMO is to elicit a market response, so by the time we get to Monday morning I hope it’s all abated.
Interesting times!
While not being supportive of these problems, shortfalls of wind reliability would put in close focus the reliance of wind