Part 2: Too much rooftop PV in SA, almost, as forecast for 15th February 2024

Update at 14:15NEM time

The following market notices (after 9:21) were published on 15 February.

• 10:51 – The DPVC1 notice of 09:21 was cancelled (MN 114744).
• 11:14 – The DPVC1 situation for SA was triggered again (MN 114746).
• 12:32 – The level was upgraded to DPVC2 (MN 114753).
• 12:34 – Market notice 114751 announced a DPVC3 situation in SA – that curtailment of distributed PV was occurring.
• 13:28 – An update was issued that communicated the continuation of the DPVC3 situation in SA (MN 114757).
• 14:15 – The DPVC3 , DPVC2 and DPVC1 situation in SA was cancelled (MN 114761).

Original article

At 09:21 the market received an update on the distributed PV situation in SA for 15 February 2024.

The update indicates that there is again an elevated risk of AEMO needing to curtail distributed PV between 13:30 and 14:30 (NEM time).

This follows the earlier notice, then cancellation, as covered in Too much rooftop PV in SA, almost, as forecast for 15th February 2024.

We note that the new maximum DPV forecast in the notice (below) is 1716 MW. This is slightly lower than the 1737 MW forecast that triggered the situation at earlier in the day (1:41 am, MN 114740).

MARKET NOTICE 114743
________________________________________________________________________________________________

Notice ID 114743
Notice Type ID Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Notice Type Description MARKET
Issue Date Thursday, 15 February 2024
External Reference DPV Contingency 1 (DPVC1) in the SA Region on 15/02/2024
________________________________________________________________________________________________

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO has detected there is an elevated risk of the contingent disconnection of Distributed PV (DPV) which, together with the risk of loss of scheduled generation, exceeds secure thresholds in the South Australia region from 1330 hrs 15/02/2024 to 1430 hrs 15/02/2024.

Maximum DPV generation forecast by the Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System 2 (ASEFS2) is 1716 MW at 1400 hrs and the secure ASEFS2 DPV generation limit for the forecast operating conditions is 1752 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

An insufficient market response may require AEMO to take action or intervene to maintain power system security in South Australia. This may result in action such as the recall of planned outages, direction of scheduled generation, curtailment of non-scheduled wind generation, and an instruction / direction to maintain DPV generation below a secure DPV generation threshold.

AEMO estimates the latest time at which it may need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 1230 hrs on 15/02/2024.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations