A short note this morning to follow AEMO’s Market Notice 108681, which says:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 23/06/2023 05:00:09
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Notice ID : 108681
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 23/06/2023
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the SA Region on 27/06/2023
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the SA region for the following period:
[1.] From 1830 hrs 27/06/2023 to 1900 hrs 27/06/2023.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 246 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 238 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
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Whilst forecasts of LOR1 in different regions seem ‘a dime a dozen’ these days (even actual LOR1 levels are quite common) forecast LOR2 conditions are less common, and also more significant (from a tight supply/demand perspective).
Here’s the current view of a pre-prepared 14-day trend for South Australia:
Those with a licence to the ez2view software can open their own copy of this trend here to keep track of this period as forecasts change.
PS1 – cancelled at 08:00 same day
This forecast LOR2 for next Tuesday was subsequently cancelled on the same day, as noted in Market Notice 108693 at 09:08:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 23/06/2023 09:08:14
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 108693
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 23/06/2023
External Reference : STPASA – Cancellation of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the SA Region on 27/06/2023
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the SA region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 108681 is cancelled at 0800 hrs 23/06/2023.
No LOR2 condition is currently forecast in the STPASA period.
AEMO Operations.
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END OF REPORT
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PS2 – it’s baaack!
Early afternoon the forecast LOR2 alert was back:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 23/06/2023 13:55:10
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 108697
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 23/06/2023
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the SA Region on 27/06/2023
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the SA region for the following period:
From 1830 hrs to 1900 hrs on 27/06/2023.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 239 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 238 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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Way back when we released the GRC2018 we wrote about how ‘the level of risk in the NEM is increasing’ (as Theme 2 within Part 2 of the 180-page Analytical Component). This type of see-saw oscillations in forecast tightness is just one illustration of this …
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