More delays in expected Return to Service (RTS) for both Callide C3 and C4

One of our readers notified me that it was yesterday that CS Energy published their Media Release ‘Updated return to service data for Callide C units’:

… so I thought I would take a quick look, using a recent – but not the latest – release (i.e. v9.5.1.230 built on 28th October 2022) of our ez2view software.

(A)  Callide C4

Remember that Callide C4 has been offline since the explosion on 25th May 2021 … and that we’ve published many articles since that time about the ‘Callide C4 Catastrophe’.

In yesterday’s media release, CS Energy wrote:

‘… While most of the large C4 replacement components have now arrived at the power station (including the generator transformer), the road transfer of the generator stator has been delayed until January 2023. The generator stator is currently at the Port of Gladstone.

As a result, the JV today informed the market that Unit C4’s return to service date has changed from April 2023 to 1 May 2023.

It not unusual for generators to adjust their return to service dates for units that are undergoing major maintenance or repairs, depending on issues identified during the process.’

Using the ‘MT PASA DUID Availability’ widget inside of ez2view (and once again saying thanks to ERM Power for initiating the Rule Change), we can see more nuance to the announcement above:

We see that:

1)  Not only is the RTS delayed…

2)  Also we see that the JV owners (CS Energy and OzGen (i.e. Intergen predominantly)) are now aiming for a stepped RTS profile:

(a)  Only 300MW at 1st May 2023

(b)  Then to 350MW at 1st June

(c)  Then to 420MW at 1st August

(d)  Then to 466MW at 1st October 2023 …. but note:

i.  The prior schedules did not have any increase above 420MW in the entire duration of the forecast period

ii.  Currently the Maximum Capacity registered with AEMO for CPP_4 is only 420MW (whereas for CPP_3 it is 466MW), so not 100% sure what this means.

Given that we’re approaching the pointy end of the RTS schedule, it will be worth watching this in more detail in the next couple months.

(B)  Callide C3

Remember that Callide C3 came offline on 31st October 2022 due to partial cooling tower failure – and that the return to service expectation has been revised a couple times since that point as a result of the clearer picture of the damage and repair schedule.

In yesterday’s media release, CS Energy wrote:

‘The Callide C JV, together with CS Energy as the operator, are continuing to assess options for safely returning the Unit C3 cooling tower to service, following a structural failure of a section of the tower on 31 October 2022.

Based on the latest information from external engineering experts, the JV advised the market today that the return to service date for Unit C3 has changed from 11 February 2023 to 8 May 2023.’

Again, using the ‘MT PASA DUID Availability’ widget with a focus on Callide C3 we see more nuance:

We see that:

1)  Not only is the RTS delayed…

2)  Also we see that the JV owners (CS Energy and OzGen (i.e. Intergen predominantly)) are now aiming for a stepped RTS profile:

(a)  Only 300MW at 8th May 2023 … so now 7 days later than the first step for Callide C4 noted above

(b)  Then to 350MW at 1st June (coincident with Callide C4 above);

(c)  Then to 420MW at 1st August (coincident with Callide C4 above);

(d)  Then to 466MW at 1st October 2023 (coincident with Callide C4 above  … excepting the MaxCap for CPP_3 is actually 466MW, so this increase seems possible).

(C)  All coal units

Using the ‘Generator Outages’ widget released for ez2view v9.4 and upgraded in v9.5, we’ve taken a quick look at current expectations across all 43 x remaining coal units across QLD, NSW and VIC:

From this window we see lots of green in the rows for each of the 47 x coal units, through until the end of the visible window (7th February 2023) … indicating that, at least according to current schedule, the expectation is that no other coal unit should be on outage through the period from the end of January and the first week of February* when any hotter weather might translate into higher Grid Demand.

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Note that just beyond the visible window shown here:

1)  (re *) there currently is a short 1-week outage planned for Yallourn YWPS3 from 10th February 2023

2)  from the start of March, more outages are planned for various units.

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With the 20th December update from the BOM (or whatever we’re supposed to call it these days?) suggesting that ‘The majority of models predict a return to neutral ENSO by February 2023’ (i.e. La Nina on the way out), perhaps we’ll see a return to a more ‘normal’ hot summer condition in February 2023 in Queensland and NSW … which means these delays might become more important.