When can we hope to see the return of some of these coal units?

Given the train wreck* that we’re enduring currently one of the key questions many will be asking will be … when will we start to see the return of some of these coal units out on outage.

 * hmmm… reminds me of my forecasts, of sorts, back in July 2017 (five years ago almost exactly!)

To help me understand the answer to that question, I’ve opened up the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view, filtered for the 47 remaining coal units and attached a snapshot:

… readers should note that YWPS3 and YWPS4 fill out the list, but disappear under the scroll on this screen.

With particular respect to the 5 I have highlighted, and also others, I will explore each in turn.

(A)  Background to the data set

This widget is an amalgamation of data that is both historically focused actuals prior to the ‘today’ column … which is Tuesday 14th June 2022 in this case … and forecast availability into the future from the ‘most recent’ MT PASA DUID Availability run:

1)  The forward-looking data came about through the ‘ERM Rule Change’:

(a)  Which covers Scheduled units; but

(b)  Unfortunately does not cover the planned outages of Semi-Scheduled units.

2)  Because of the cadence and cycle of the AEMO MT PASA processes:

(a)  as we stand at Tuesday 14th June, the next few days have only ‘stale’ data available to view, published by AEMO for 18:00 last Saturday  11th June.

(b)  from Sunday 19th June and onwards, we have data published by AEMO today … and submitted by participants today as well.

A very valuable addition to market transparency … thanks to the team at ERM Power (now Shell Energy) for proposing.

(B)  Some units that might return within the coming week:

I’ve flagged 5 units in the snapshot above and will discuss each in turn, plus some others…

(B1)  Bayswater unit 2

I did not highlight BW02 in the Outages window above, as I’d taken the snapshot at 09:40 this morning.

Since that time there’s been an update to expectations with the unit to return by 19th June 2022.  That’s great news!

(B2)  Bayswater unit 4

With this snapshot from ‘Bids & Offers’ widget at 12:20 today we can see that the BW04 unit came offline in the afternoon of Thursday 9th June and has used the rebid/bid reason ‘plant failure’ a couple of times:

In the ‘Generator Outages’ widget above, we see that (as at this morning) the expectation was that it would be back by this coming Sunday 19th June, if not before.  As at 18:00 on Saturday 11th June, the expectation was that it should be back on Thursday 16th June …

1)  which would be very welcome.

2)  but remember that this is stale data, and all we can really rely on is to say by this coming Sunday.

(B3)  Callide C3

Not to be mistaken with its sibling (Callide C4 which is on long-term outage), Callide C3 tripped on 10th June for reasons unknown (though there were some rebid reasons through the morning that point to various possible factors):

In this window, we can also see a number of entries relating to changes to RTS (return to service) expectations.

1)  In the ‘Generator Outages’ widget above, we see that (as at this morning) the expectation was that it would be back by this coming Sunday 19th June, if not before.

2)  Because the unit tripped on Friday 10th June, this would have (in theory) given the operator time to adjust (on Saturday 11th June) the return to service schedule … and the 18:00 run from 11th June suggests the unit would be back today, so its return might be imminent.

(B4)  Gladstone unit 4

For GSTONE4, the unit tripped on 10th June for reasons not revealed:

In the ‘Generator Outages’ widget above, we see that (as at this morning) the expectation was that it would be back by this coming Saturday 18th June (but remember this data point is stale data).

As was the case with Callide C3, because this unit tripped on Friday 10th June, this would have (in theory) given the operator time to adjust (on Saturday 11th June) the return to service schedule … and the 18:00 run from 11th June suggests the unit would be back today, so its return might be imminent.

(B5)  Millmerran unit 1

UPDATE at 17:45 = I’ve rewritten this note for Millmerran unit 1 after some some readers pointed out errors I made in interpreting the data presented in the ‘Generator Outages’ widget (snapshot above).

The MPP_1 unit has been offline since 30th April 2022.

In terms of a return-to-service date:

1)   As at the 18:00 update last Saturday 11th June, the expectation was that the unit would be available at some point today (Tue 14th June); and

2)  As at the 09:40 snapshot point of the image today, the unit was noted to be available at the latest on Sunday 19th June.

3)  Not shown in the image above, but if I Time Travel back to 18:05 on Saturday 4th June (last update for the week before), the expected RTS date appeared to be Thursday 9th June…. so there’s been some movement on this date since 4th June.

In between today (Tue 14th) and Sunday 19th June, the staleness of the MT PASA DUID Availability data for the current week means that we can’t be really sure when exactly the unit is expected to be back online … so sometime on or before Sunday 19th is what this data set provides for.

A big thanks to those who pointed out my errors, and apologies to any reader who’d formed incorrect impressions from what I had written … and also to the various stakeholders involved at the plant.

(B6)  Yallourn unit 1

The YWPS1 came offline early Sunday morning, 12th June for an economiser tube leak:

Because this happened after the MT PASA window rolled forward, we can be confident in disregarding all data prior to Sunday 19th June (which is a day for which the unit is forecast to be available).

(B7)  Yallourn unit 4

The YWPS4 unit came offline also on Sunday 12th June … the rebid reason just says ‘plant trip’.  An attempt to restart was made early Monday 13th June but the unit tripped again:

Because this happened after the MT PASA window rolled forward, we can be confident in disregarding all data prior to Sunday 19th June (which is a day for which the unit is forecast to be available).

Given the current condition of supply-demand (and prices) in the NEM, a large number of people will be waiting on each of these to return.