Tuesday morning’s first update – including this evening’s forecast LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW

Let’s start with this snapshot from NEMwatch at 06:15 as this first update:


With reference to the numbering:

1)  The TAS region is the only one with prices able to rise above $300/MWh, and in this dispatch interval we see them spike to $3,225.39/MWh

2)  For the mainland regions we see:

(a)  SA more than $500,000 past the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT) of $1,359,100.

(b)  The VIC region slightly higher than SA

(c)  The NSW region at more than double the CPT

(d)  The QLD region  fast approaching four times the CPT

… which continues to reinforce that there’ll need to be some major circuit breaker for Administered Pricing to end at some point in the future.

3)  I’ve highlighted the 05:19 update from AEMO about forecast LOR3 (i.e. controlled load shedding) this evening in NSW:


From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     14/06/2022     05:19:03


Notice ID               :         97198
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         14/06/2022
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 14/06/2022


Reason :


The Forecast LOR3 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 97173 has been updated at 0500 hrs to the following:

[1.] From 1730 hrs 14/06/2022 to 2100 hrs 14/06/2022.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 590 MW at 1900 hrs.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which they would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations


4)  In some good news from a supply-demand perspective, the wind production across the NEM has picked up again from yesterday evening.


Let’s see what today has to bring…

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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