Tuesday morning’s first update – including this evening’s forecast LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW

Let’s start with this snapshot from NEMwatch at 06:15 as this first update:

With reference to the numbering:

1)  The TAS region is the only one with prices able to rise above $300/MWh, and in this dispatch interval we see them spike to $3,225.39/MWh

2)  For the mainland regions we see:

(a)  SA more than $500,000 past the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT) of $1,359,100.

(b)  The VIC region slightly higher than SA

(c)  The NSW region at more than double the CPT

(d)  The QLD region  fast approaching four times the CPT

… which continues to reinforce that there’ll need to be some major circuit breaker for Administered Pricing to end at some point in the future.

3)  I’ve highlighted the 05:19 update from AEMO about forecast LOR3 (i.e. controlled load shedding) this evening in NSW:

——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     14/06/2022     05:19:03

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         97198
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         14/06/2022
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 14/06/2022

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR3 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 97173 has been updated at 0500 hrs to the following:

[1.] From 1730 hrs 14/06/2022 to 2100 hrs 14/06/2022.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 590 MW at 1900 hrs.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which they would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

4)  In some good news from a supply-demand perspective, the wind production across the NEM has picked up again from yesterday evening.

Let’s see what today has to bring…