Tight supply-demand, so price volatility, in NSW and QLD on Tuesday 31st May 2022

A short article for Tuesday evening with this snapshot from NEMwatch at the 17:30 dispatch interval, flagging the start if the >$1,000/MWh volatility:

With respect to the numbering:

1)  Prices above $1,000/MWh in QLD and NSW … but also above $300/MWh in VIC, SA and TAS

2)  This follows a period during daylight hours when prices were lower in SA and also in QLD.

3)  The NSW demand has climbed out of the ‘green zone’ on a relative basis with reference to historical ‘Market Demand’

4)  In terms of fuel mix:

(a)  Following this morning’s all-time-maximum peak in wind production NEM-wide, there’s still a solid block of wind generation in NSW operating now

(b)  The sun’s gone to bed

(c)  Hydro has ramped up significantly

(d)  The production from gas peakers has been ramping up through the afternoon (but the more recent burst from hydro over the past hour is much larger).

5)  The NSW-only ‘Economic Island’ is running at an IRPM of only 8% … with:

(a)  11,461 of net ‘Market Demand’ …

(b)  being supplied from 12,434MW of Available Capacity

(c)  with the net ‘Market Demand’ being lower than the demand in the region by virtue of the 452MW imports from QLD (though these are being offset by the 222MW export being required south from NSW into VIC)

6)  We see that both import and export limit being set at 222MW south on the VIC-to-NSW interconnector:

With usage of ez2view (not shown here) we can see that…

(a)  The export limit (which would ordinarily be for flow north) is being wired to make flow proceed south by virtue of the ‘N>>N-DTKV_CTMN’ Constraint Equation, which has been invoked as part of the ‘N-DTKV_18_15M’ constraint set to configure the network inside of NEMDE for the outage of Dapto to Kangaroo Valley line number 18.

(b)  The import limit is being set at the same level by the ‘N::V_DDSM_MSDD’ Constraint Equation,

7)  The tight supply-demand balance has also been flagged as ‘Actual LOR1’ by AEMO in Market Notice NNNN:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     31/05/2022     17:20:05

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Notice ID               :         96689
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         31/05/2022
External Reference      :         Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the NSW Region on 31/05/2022

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the NSW region – 31/05/2022

An Actual LOR1 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region from 1700 hrs.

The Actual LOR1 condition is forecast to exist until 2000 hrs.

The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1430 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1287 MW.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Nothing further, at this time.