Hot weather and high demand continues, with actual LOR1 in NSW region at 13:55 on Saturday 1st February 2020

I’ve snuck into the office on Saturday to start the process of piecing together some of of the different aspects of what happened yesterday to follow on from Friday evening’s short article (this will take quite a while to do (so many moving parts) so you might have to wait a bit for that one).

Hence most of my market views are more focused on yesterday….

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… but my copy of ez2view has talked to me just now about an ‘Actual Lack of Reserve in Market Notice’ with an audible alert I’d preconfigured in the software – so I thought I would drop this snapshot in from 14:00 to give some sense of what the starting point is for this afternoon’s gyrations in the NSW region of the NEM:

Note that the alert is for ‘Actual LOR1’ from 13:55 – but those not familiar should note that LOR1 is the least severe level of Low Reserve Condition (LRC) Notice.

Here’s the NEMwatch snapshot at the same 14:00 dispatch interval, showing Scheduled Demand at 12,707MW on its way to a (currently) expected peak of 13,523MW in the 16:30 trading period (NEM time).

As noted, this would be approximately 1,100MW below the all-time maximum demand on the same basis.

Quickly pulling in the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view see that the AEMO’s forecasts for NSW Scheduled Demand this afternoon have been growing ‘warmer’ in the past couple hours:

Should not be as bumpy as yesterday, but would not be surprised with a few more price spikes up towards the Market Price Cap.  After all, a Scheduled Demand of 13,500MW would be pretty high for a Saturday (no time to look at what the record is).

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… back to reviewing yesterday, trying to ignore developments today.