The heatwave promises to return next week

Posted by Paul McArdle Friday, January 10 2014 Topic: Summer 2013-14 in the NEM

With the NEM having already experienced one cycle of heatwave that passed through South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and then Queensland over the past couple of weeks, we see that a similar pattern looks set to return:

Tweet from ABC Emergency about the heatwave returning

Delving into the detail of AEMO’s ST PASA forecast for next week, and looking at the Victorian region in ez2viewAustralia, we see that the demand forecast for the Victorian region on Thursday 16th (next week), when some weather forecasters are estimating 42 degrees in Melbourne, we see a demand peak – under the 50% POE (probability of exceedance) forecast – has increased significantly in the AEMO’s 2pm forecast today, compared with the one from 6pm yesterday.

2014-01-10-at-14-50-STPASA-VIC-demand50-forecast-increases

As a result, the amount of surplus capacity forecast (whilst still a healthy margin, with the lowest being 744MW) is at the low-point of the current forecast for the week, and is lower than was forecast yesterday evening.

Promises to be an interesting summer…

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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2 Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. NEM-wide demand steams towards 32,000MW, and prices explode, as heatwave hits Victoria and South Australia | WattClarity
  2. Recapping where NEM-wide demand travelled over summer 2013-14 | WattClarity

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