Analytical Challenge – the Heis-energy-burger Uncertainty Principle*
Briefly describing another of the core Analytical Challenges we've seen (and experienced) over the years...
A collection of some core analytical challenges
A collation of a series of short articles … which are aimed to be reminders of some common traps we’ve fallen into ourselves (or seen others fall into) with respect to analysis of the energy sector.
Analysis Paralysis – where has our engineering gone?
Kate Summers gave this speech about the 'paralysis by analysis' currently occurring in the energy industry at Melbourne's All-Energy Australia Conference on Wednesday 26th of October.
Analytical challenge (or beginner mistake!) – understanding the difference between a MW and a MWh
Reposting a portion of an article we published some years ago, to help readers understand the difference between a MW and a MWh.
Analytical Challenge – remembering to consider that *Other* Dimension of Time
In this article we explain a different (and sometimes quite powerful) way of reviewing some performance metrics in relation to the passage of another dimension of time.
Analytical Challenge – choosing what measure to use, for ‘Installed Capacity’
Prompted by a number of different factors in recent times, in this article we explain why assessing a units 'Installed Capacity' is significantly more complex than it might initially appear!
Mothballing logic, and reason?
Recent events in the NEM are causing me to wonder whether we've suspended logic, and reason, in charting a workable course through this energy transition?
Analytical challenge – recognising the separate components in Risk, and their influence
A simple refresher on two core components that combine in order to define risk - probability and consequence.
Do you know of people who can help us?
Readers at WattClarity might recall that we have asked the question above a couple of times in recent weeks – and a big thanks to those who responded already! We’re blessed with opportunities at present (have been for a while, really) – to help a...
Analytical Challenge – In a complex system like the NEM, it’s almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.
Analytical Challenge – remembering that it’s impossible to know motive (but does not stop us guessing)
Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others - despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.
Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias
Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that "things" will always be that way.
Analytical Challenge – determining “what might have otherwise been?”
One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain "what might have otherwise been".
Analytical Challenge – keeping an open mind to positions expressed by a broad range of people
"Incumbency" seems to have become a pejorative in the NEM
Forecasting is a Mug’s Game
The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling
A model’s just a model – it’s not reality (though some models might be useful)
Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.