We had noted the cool-down in temperature and associated abatement of market demand in … but then the cooler change arrived in NSW, on Friday afternoon 19th December 2025.
Yet at 16:11 market notice 131880 arrived, announcing an actual Level 2 Lack of Reserve.
Between 16:00 and 17:00 the minimum reserve available is projected to be 664 MW.
------------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET NOTICE ------------------------------------------------------------------- From : AEMO To : NEMITWEB1 Creation Date : 19/12/2025 16:11:12 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Notice ID : 131880 Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3 Issue Date : 19/12/2025 External Reference : Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW region - 19/12/2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW region - 19/12/2025 An Actual LOR2 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region from 1600 hrs. The Actual LOR2 condition is forecast to exist until 19/12/2025 1700 hrs The capacity reserve required is 700 MW The minimum reserve available is 664 MW AEMO is seeking an immediate market response. An insufficient market response may require AEMO to implement a AEMO intervention event. Manager NEM Real Time Operations ------------------------------------------------------------------- END OF REPORT -------------------------------------------------------------------
PS1
Forecast demand appears to have overestimated the mitigating impact of cooler temperatures.
This screenshot from ez2view, taken at interval 16:40, shows the solid-dotted line as actuals (30 minute) persisting higher than forecast up to the current point in time (vertical dashed line).
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