The forecast temperature for NSW today is looking hot and sticky … so used the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view to take a quick look – with this snapshot taken for the 07:10 dispatch interval (NEM time):
Remember that this widget allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.
Note that:
1) the forecast ‘Market Demand’ is that it might peak around ~12,500MW this afternoon/evening
… which would be still ~2,000MW below the all-time maximum, but still having the potential to stretch available supplies under certain circumstances.
2) we also see the P30 predispatch forecast for NSW prices this evening currently being in the $1,000/MWh-$2,000/MWh range:
(a) Which we see is down on earlier forecasts
(b) But watch this space?
Two other things worth looking at are shown in this next ez2view snapshot at 07:30 that includes two widgets:
We see:
1) At the top, the ‘Constraint Sets’ widget filtered down to just look at outage-related constraint sets on the 330kV lines coming in from southern NSW (which we have seen before are a common cause of restricted flows north over VIC1-NSW1)…
(a) No planned outages seen today, though there is a planned outage on the Avon to Macarthur line 17 (via the ‘N-AVMA_17’ constraint set) planned to start on Friday 31st January 2025.
2) At the bottom is the ‘Generator Outages’ widget, filtered to show coal unit outages – with NSW units at the top:
(a) Apart from the ongoing unplanned outage at Bayswater unit 2 (discussed here last week) we see the other coal units are currently operational.
(b) That’s also the case in QLD, with the exception of Tarong North.
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