Today’s significant ‘Market Demand’ drop in NSW (and a smaller one in QLD) not forecast in advance

We earlier noted this ‘Significant (-786MW) drop in NSW demand, on Wednesday 13th November 2024’ … and, in response, a reader (KC) asked:

‘did something similar happen QLD?’

… which leads me to add in this snapshot from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view, time travelled back to 11:10 dispatch interval (NEM time) in order to see successive updates on the AEMO’s P5 predispatch forecasts for both regions side-by-side:

Comparing NSW (on the LHS) and QLD (on the RHS) we see both regions saw drops in demand that were not forecast in advance … just that NSW was much more dramatic (enough to trigger the ez2view alert in the prior article).

Flipping to AEMO’s P30 predispatch forecasts (and notwithstanding Tripwire #1 and Tripwire #2) we see some significant gyrations in either direction:

Do we put this all down to the occasional (significant!) difficulties in forecasting injections of rooftop PV?