Late afternoon and Evening run of volatility in NSW and QLD, on Thursday 7th November 2024

It was a hot and sweaty walk home from the Brisbane office late this afternoon, accompanied by the incessant buzzing of my phone … due to the run of volatility in NSW and QLD we forecast in this morning’s article.

Here’s a snapshot of the 17:55 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Thursday 7th November 2024 in NEMwatch, for instance:

Some quick notes, with the annotation:

1)  Constraints on the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector are limiting ability for the southern regions to offer more assistance

…  More about that soon

2)  This leads to a QLD+NSW ‘Economic Island’

3)  But we see in this snapshot:

(a)  the IRPM for the QLD+NSW ‘Economic Island’ is a relatively healthy 16%

(b)  but the AEMO’s indication of the tight supply-demand balance is seen in the ‘Actual LOR1’ notices for both NSW and QLD.

4)  Obviously prices are spicy in QLD and NSW:

(a)  We already noted about the ‘earlier than expected’ spike in NSW this afternoon for 14:25 (NEM time) ;

(b)  Next after that was the spike above $1,000/MWh at 15:50 (NEM time)

… thereafter it’s remained high

5)  There’s a noticeable drop in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW highlighted:

(a)  from 8,859MW (at 16:45) to 8,579MW (at 16:50);

(b)  which is a drop of 280MW

(c)  which we speculate is probably a form of market-induced demand response

i.  not triggered through the underwhelming WDRM mechanism

ii.  but instead at one of the major industrial energy users we serve in NSW

More to come in subsequent articles?