On Tuesday afternoon this week, 24th September 2024 we noted that ‘AEMO issues the (second ever) ‘Minimum System Load’ Market Notice for Victoria on Sat 28th Sept 2024 (AFL Grand Final Day)’.
… The challenge of ‘not enough demand’ was also noted elsewhere, and there has been various discussion about this at ‘nerd corner’ within social media that I’ve seen
Since that Market Notice 118421, the AEMO also issued a notice for today (Friday 27th September 2024), as noted here … but there’s been no update (i.e. in Market Notices) yet about expectations for Saturday.
So I thought I’d quickly power up the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view to quickly have a look:
The low points forecast for later today (the pre-AFL-GF public holiday in Victoria) and tomorrow (AFL GF) are clearly visible.
Leaving aside the jokes about Victorians abandoning the state ‘en masse’ without a local team to support (go Lions?!) it’s clear that a major contributor will be the gangbusters rooftop PV pummeling otherwise suppressed long-weekend springtime Underlying Demand.
Let’s zoom into the forecasts for tomorrow and have a closer look:
Remember that AEMO had written the following at 14:54 on Tuesday 24th September in MN118421:
‘Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1638 MW at 1300 hrs,’
I did have a question about which particular measure of demand the AEMO was using for these numbers (remember the gory details) but I did find a forecast for 1,638MW in ‘TotalDemand’ (selected in this view of ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view) published at 14:00 on Tuesday 24th September … so presumably feeding into the Market Notice issued that same hour.
We see from the image above that the more recent forecasts are lower still (i.e. 1,483MW for 13:00 and 1,481MW for 12:00) … though still not below the MSL2 threshold (of 1,365MW) the AEMO noted in that Market Notice, at which some actions might be triggered, perhaps?
Watch this space…
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