31st October 2008 – High Prices and Low Reserves in NSW
A tight supply/demand balance in NSW on the 31st October, exacerbated by transmission constraints into the region led to sustained higher prices in NSW.
High Prices and Low Reserves in NSW
An illuminating view of the NEM during the high NSW prices on 31st October 2008, illustrated with screenshots and a dynamic video from the new NEM-Watch v8.
VOLL Pricing on 23rd July 2008
It appears that we spoke too soon when we mentioned on the 22nd July that winter 2008 had been relatively uneventful.
Just over 24 hours from making these comments, we saw prices jump sky-high in the mainland regions, and go the other way (to the negative price cap) in Tasmania.
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
As we have the time, we’ll provide some commentary here about the methods used by the various bodies for “long term” (which in the NEM means 10-years, typically) forecasting. Where they don’t fit elsewhere, we’ll also put articles here looking…
About Emissions Reduction
A topic containing miscellaneous articles covering aspects of emissions reduction technologies (including renewables) and schemes (including the CPRS, Emissions Trading and the Carbon Tax).
Winter 2008
Miscellaneous articles on activity in the NEM during winter 2008.
Dependence on gas supplies in the NEM
Our Managing Director spoke at the “Australian Energy & Utility Summit 08” in
Sydney on Tuesday 22nd July 2008, touching on a number of issues including the Emissions Trading System and the possible emergence of a NEM heavily dependent on gas
supplies, which might be unreliable.
NSW winter peak demand forecasts
Our Managing Director spoke at the “Australian Energy & Utility Summit 08” in
Sydney on Tuesday 22nd July 2008, touching on a number of issues including the nature of peak demand forecasts (for winter in the NSW region) over the coming 10 years
Prices depressed in the NEM – Winter 2008
Our Managing Director spoke at the “Australian Energy & Utility Summit 08” in
Sydney on Tuesday 22nd July 2008, touching on a number of issues including the depressed prices experienced in winter 2008.
Volatility in the market over winter 2007
Our Managing Director spoke at the “Australian Energy & Utility Summit 08” in Sydney on Tuesday 22nd July 2008, touching on issues including the extremes of price volatility that were experienced over winter 2007.
“Power Prices Jump in Eye of the Storm”, from the AFR
Following from an alert to the situation provided by NEM-Watch, Duncan Hughes published an article “Power Price Jump in Eye of the Storm” that mentioned the extremely low levels of NEM-Wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) that had occurred for a 60-minute period over both days.
Cost of congestion to energy users
For the EUAA’s Members Meeting (held in Brisbane on 24th April 2008), our Managing Director was invited to provide of a précis of the presentation he previously provided at the “QLD Energy” conference (on 12th March 2008).
In particular, comments made by Paul with respect to the proposed upgrade to QNI – which was topical at the time of the conference, given that Powerlink and TransGrid had released their analysis of several upgrade options in the same week as the conference.
As a result of the presentation, Duncan Hughes wrote an article about the potential cost to energy users of the upgrade, and published this in the Australian Financial Review on 13th March 2008.
Given the magnitude of the numbers reported, this issue has proved to be of significant issue to large energy users – hence the invitation to present at the Member’s Meeting.
Links to various other materials relating to the heat wave
The heatwave, and its effects on the NEM, certainly proved newsworthy. In this article, we provide a listing of the news coverage provided to the heatwave.
Links to external reports relating to the blackout
Following from the blackout, several government bodies, and industry organisations completed reviews of the events leading up to the blackout. For completeness, these reports (at least, those we are aware of) have been listed in this article.
Our review of the heat wave in South Australia
With demand soaring, and interconnectors constrained, generators in South Australia and Victoria took what opportunity they had to force the price high. So successful were the South Australian generators that the Cumulative Price Threshold was reached in South Australia and, under NEM Rules, an Administered Price Cap was applied for a period of time.
March 2008 – Massive Heat-Wave hits SA & Victoria
In March 2008 (after summer had officially ended) South Australians were forced to endure a record 15 straight days of temperatures climbing above 35ºC. Victorians also experienced extreme heat for a number of days. This sweltering weather forced demand through…
Summer 2006-2007 – Miscellaneous Articles
Over the period of summer 2006-07, we prepared a number of articles about other occasions of note in the NEM (in addition to the blackout of 16th January 2007, which has been written about separately).
Winter 2002
Events of Winter 2002 in the NEM.
Analysis of price volatility in the QLD region over summer 2007-08
Our Managing Director was asked to speak at the “Queensland Energy” conference in Brisbane on Wednesday 12th March – specifically addressing the topic of price volatility in the NEM.
To provide the basis of discussion during the conference, we focused our analysis solely on Queensland region (to make the topic more manageable).
In our review of volatility in the Queensland region, we focused specifically on 3 core attributes of the market: Queensland dispatch prices; NEM-Wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin; and the concept of “Economic Islands”.
Summer 2005-2006 – Miscellaneous Articles
Over the period of summer 2005-06, we prepared a number of articles about other occasions of note in the NEM. These articles are linked here.