Was Monday evening’s new record wind production well forecast in advance?
Taking a closer look at the new 'highest ever' point for NEM-wide Wind Production on Monday 26th May 2025, and how well this was forecast in advance.
All Posts
Drop in mainland system frequency on 26 May 2025
The measurements indicated frequency ducked just below the NOFB briefly, reaching 49.843 Hz.
New all-time record for NEMwide production from Wind on Monday 26th May 2025
Looking back at Monday evening 26th May 2025, there was indeed a new all-time wind production record (which smashed the earlier record set almost exactly a year earlier).
Two large drops in ‘Market Demand’ in South Australia on Monday afternoon 26th May 2025
Worth a short note to tag in this ‘Notification’ widget alert in ez2view triggered at 13:31 (NEM time) on Monday 26th May 2025 about a 235MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in South Australia.
*Might* be a new all-time record for NEMwide wind production on Monday night 26th May 2025
An updated view (at Monday morning 26th May 2025) at updated forecasts for NEM-wide wind capability for this evening.
Forecast for high wind capability across the NEM on Monday 26th May 2025
A glance at an ez2view dashboard shows AEMO forecasts for wind capability next Monday 26th May 2025 will be quite high.
Trouble at the TEMCO Smelter in Tasmania in May 2025?
On Monday 19th May and Tuesday 20th May 2025 there were several articles we saw that suggested a period of 'limited operations' (and presumably lower electricity consumption) at a major energy user in Tasmania.
Buronga No.5 330kV synchronous condenser has been commissioned in NSW
AEMO notes that 'At 1700 hrs 20/05/2025, the Buronga No.5 330kV synchronous condenser has been commissioned.'
Prices up in the southern half of the NEM – on Tuesday 20th May 2025
A short article to mark a (relatively rare) instance where prices in the three southern regions of a May evening are more elevated than in QLD and NSW.
Loy Yang A3 offline on Tuesday afternoon 20th May 2025 – small frequency drop
A short note because of a 295MW drop in output from Loy Yang A3 just prior to 14:06 (NEM time) on Tuesday 20th May 2025.
Guest Authored Posts
Not all renewable projects are created equal: Why approval times vary dramatically across Australia
Alice Matthews examines how approval times for renewables vary widely by state and technology — with NSW wind projects facing the longest delays.
Triple C conditions (cold, calm and cloudy) across the NEM last Thursday evening 26th June 2025
Carl Daley examines the underlying conditions and outcomes that occurred last Thursday evening, the 26th of June.
Detailed Analysis
5 FAQs we’re asked about the Generator Report Card (for discussion at AIE this evening)
We've been invited by the Australian Institute of Energy (AIE) to speak this evening in Sydney about some of the lessons learnt in the process of completing our Generator Report Card. Here's some context...
Villain #5 – not focusing on the real problems
Fifteen months after first speaking at Clean Energy Summit about the train wreck that's ongoing in terms of our mismanaged energy transition (and coincident with another industry gathering in the form of the AFR...
Analytical Challenge – In a complex system like the NEM, it’s almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.
Analytical Challenge – remembering that it’s impossible to know motive (but does not stop us guessing)
Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others - despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.
If I were going to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday 18th and Friday 19th, here’s a couple things I would look into…
A starting list of all the factors I would like to delve into, in order to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday and Friday in Victoria and South Australia
Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias
Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that "things" will always be that way.
Analytical Challenge – determining “what might have otherwise been?”
One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain "what might have otherwise been".
A collection of some core analytical challenges
A collection of articles speaking to some core analytical challenges. Others are categorised elsewhere – like my prior thoughts on three reasons why forecasting is a mug’s game.