The increasingly stochastic and volatile NEM
Oliver Nunn from Endgame Economics argues that we must begin to think about the distribution of prices in the NEM as a function of weather.
All Posts
A ~50-day view of rising spurts of volatility in the LOWER1SEC FCAS market in South Australia
With Administered Pricing in South Australia ongoing today, we take a longer-term look (across the past ~50 days) in the escalating pressure on Cumulative Price for LOWER1SEC FCAS in South Australia.
Network outage on Tailem Bend – Tungkillo 275kV line ended Tue 19th Aug, but Administered Pricing Continues into Wed 20th Aug (part 3)
Part 3 in an evolving series of articles about a series of the network outage(s) on the Tailem Bend - Tungkillo 275kV line that's driven LOWER1SEC prices through the roof and triggered Administered Pricing...
High level view of some contributing factors to 19 August frequency spike
Among other aspects, a large dip in solar UIGF aligns with the frequency deviation observed on 19th August 2025.
Mainland Frequency Spikes to 50.2 on Tue 19th August 2025
On Tuesday the 19th of August between 11:45 and 12:20 there was a significant frequency deviation on the mainland.
Part 2 with respect to Administered Pricing for Lower 1 second FCAS (and 9 other services) in South Australia
With Administered Pricing of all 10 x FCAS products in South Australia continuing into Monday 18th August 2025 (no surprise there), we take a second look.
The ‘2025 Victorian Transmission Plan’ released on Sunday 17th August 2025
On the weekend we noticed the release of the 2025 Victorian Transmission Plan, and thought it worth flagging here.
New ‘lowest ever’ point for ‘Market Demand’ in Queensland, on Sunday 17th August 2025
Another quick article for Sunday 17th August 2025 – this one noting a new 'lowest ever*' point for 'Market Demand' in Queensland, just shaving prior record from a year ago.
Administered pricing for FCAS in South Australia from 05:20 on Sunday 17th August 2025 (part 1)
AEMO notes that 'it has determined that an administered price period will commence at the trading interval starting 0520 on 17 August 2025' for FCAS in South Australia. We take a quick look...
A 292MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in Tasmania, on Saturday 16th August 2025
A quick first look, following the loss of 292MW of 'Market Demand' in Tasmania to 14:11 (NEM time) on Saturday 16th August 2025.
Guest Authored Posts
How the NEM BESS fleet is operating on peak days, and how to be a savvy operator
In this guest article, Matt Grover from Fluence draws on operational data and real-world trading experience to unpack how Australia’s grid-scale batteries performed across three June 2025 peak days — and what capabilities belong...
Why Gladstone’s prospective closure reveals a new kind of NEM failure
With the Queensland state government’s new energy roadmap due out tomorrow, Greg Elkins highlights how distorted signals and state interventions expose a new NEM failure.
Detailed Analysis
Do you know your obligations as a Semi-Scheduled Generator?
This is the first of a short series of video snippets extracted from the 17th September 2020 presentation by Marcelle Gannon and Jonathon Dyson for the Clean Energy Council entitled 'Maximising Profitability in the...
Case Study – How to interpret a new NEM constraint and guess what it might do
Given the great interest in the new 'X5 constraint', guest author, Allan O'Neil, has invested some time to pick the new constraint equation to understand (and then explain) what it is, how likely it...
Semi-scheduled generation–what are the real issues?
Marcelle digs into the data to find out what the real issues are in the AER's proposed rule change for semi-scheduled generators.
Feedback we have received about the 2019 edition of our Generator Statistical Digest
Just over 4 months have passed since the release of the Generator Statistical Digest 2019. We take a look back at some of the compliments and comments we've received and seen from a variety...
Analytical challenge – recognising the separate components in Risk, and their influence
A simple refresher on two core components that combine in order to define risk - probability and consequence.
First look at South Australia islanded on Saturday evening, 16th Nov 2019
A first (and perhaps only - as this took longer than initially planned) walk through some of the interesting points of what happened yesterday (Sat 16th Nov 2019) when South Australia islanded from the...
Two big reasons why we’re engaging in forensic analysis of NEM events
There are a number of reasons why we're completing the analysis we are sharing via WattClarity - here are two big ones.
Do you know of people who can help us?
Readers at WattClarity might recall that we have asked the question above a couple of times in recent weeks – and a big thanks to those who responded already! We’re blessed with opportunities at...