Self-forecasting refers to the process of estimating (and providing to the market operator) a unit’s Unconstrained Intermittent Generation Forecast (UIGF) for the next dispatch interval.
(A) Purpose of Self-Forecasting
These details will be filled in further, in the near future…
Under this heading, readers here might find it useful to refer to what we wrote in Observation 15/22 within GenInsights21: ‘What is the purpose of Self-Forecasting?’
(B) History of Self-Forecasting
We recommend that readers here familiarize themselves with the broader evolution of the Semi-Scheduled category.
The following table focuses specifically on the role of self-forecasting:
| Date | Milestone (re the Semi-Scheduled category) |
| 28th March 2018 |
Trials of Self-Forecasting were commenced with the coordination of AEMO and ARENA – with ARENA calling for expressions of interest on 28th March 2018 from various parties. That Media Release notes: ‘In partnership with the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), ARENA is seeking to demonstrate wind and solar farms can provide more accurate forecasts of their output into AEMO’s central dispatch system.’ Further details, including some Knowledge Reports, are provided here on the ARENA website. In particular it’s worth highlighting ARENA’s report from January 2020 ‘Short-Term Forecasting Trial on the NEM: Progress Report (April to October 2019)’ which they said (p5/15) is … ‘to summarise insights and progress from initial reports submitted by the 11 participants of the Short-Term Forecasting (STF) trial that is taking place between March 2019 to mid 2021.’ |
| September 2019 |
From September 2019, suitably approved Self-Forecasts were allowed to substitute* for the AEMO-developed forecasts in AWEFS and ASEFS. * It’s important for readers to note that these Self-Forecasts only provided an alternate forecast for Time Horizon #4 (i.e. within the current dispatch interval), whereas AWEFS or ASEFS continued providing inputs for the other 3 x Time Horizons. |
| 23rd Nov 2022 |
As noted in this article at the time, AEMO began to use its improved ASEFS and AWEFS forecasts. Coincident with this: 1) the AEMO paused any new suppressions for Semi-Scheduled plant that failed the ongoing self-forecasting ongoing assessment; and 2) notice was given that this ‘Grace Period*’ would end on Tuesday 28th February 2023: (a) ~3 months after the upgrade. (b) which has almost completely elapsed now. * note that the term ‘Grace Period’ is our term, not the AEMO’s. |
| Tuesday 28th Feb 2023 |
AEMO 3-month ‘Grace Period’ following the upgrade to ASEFS and AWEFS ends. TO ADD MORE LATER |
| Another Date |
More. TO ADD MORE LATER |
Will add more here, as time permits.
(C) Discussions about, and Analysis of, Self-Forecasting on WattClarity ®
As the energy transition has progressed, we (at Global-Roam Pty Ltd, the publishers of WattClarity) have been taking an increasing interest in Wind and Solar units and the workings of the Semi-Scheduled category … including the role of self-forecasting.
As such, there’s coverage of Self-Forecasting
C1) via WattClarity Deeper Insights
Via our* WattClarity Deeper Insights publications (both Analytical and Statistical) we have been taking an increasing interest in
* as with prior iterations of this report, these are a collaborative effort between us at Global-Roam Pty Ltd and the team at Greenview Strategic Consulting. That’s what we mean here by ‘our’ and ‘we’.
C1a) GenInsights21 and GenInsights Quarterly Updates
On 15th December 2021 we released GenInsights21, a detailed 622-page analytical report that analysed in detail many aspects of the energy transition, including self-forecasting.
Beginning with 2022 Q2, we continued this process with a series of GenInsights Quarterly Updates that update and extend these insights, particularly with respect to Semi-Scheduled units (in Appendix 3) and the role of Self-Forecasting.
C1b) Generator Statistical Digest
With the release of the GSD2023 on 15th February 2024 we extended the insights further, including with a focused view of monthly statistics for Semi-Scheduled units as a new feature in the GSD.
C2) via articles on WattClarity
Also via freely-accessible articles on WattClarity, we are progressively exploring the ins and outs of self-forecasting in the NEM. Readers might like to refer to:
(a) This collation of articles pertaining to ‘Self-Forecasting for Semi-Scheduled units’ under this category; and also
(b) Other articles tagged with ‘self-forecasting’.
(D) Other Notes
These details will be filled in further, in the near future…