Elevated prices (and demand) in VIC and SA on Sunday evening 10th March 2024
A short record of evening volatility in VIC and SA during the heatwave on Sunday 10th March 2024.
Eventful Days
Case Study of Sunday 12th November 2023 (lowest point for Aggregate Scheduled Target in 2023)
A 2nd short article falling out of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4. This one looks at Sunday 12th November 2023 and shows the lowest point in 2023 for NEM-wide Aggregate Scheduled Target (and the largest ramp in Q4).
Case Study of Friday 8th Dec 2023 (big gyrations in Aggregate Scheduled Target)
A short article looking at Friday 8th December 2023 looking at NEM-wide Aggregate Scheduled Target on the day.
Cloud impacts on demand, a review of NSW on 29 February 2024
The Russ Christ Effect can be described as cloud impacts on rooftop PV arriving before any associated cooling conditions. We consider the extent to which a sudden and unforecast jump in demand was driven by this phenomenon.
Stanwell unit 1 still (mostly) running Fixed Load (Part 2) … but took time for a TTHL test on Wed 6th March 2024
A short note recording the ‘trip to house load’ (TTHL) test at Stanwell unit 1 on Wednesday 6th March 2024 … using the same parts of the plant subject to concerns about fatigue damage.
Curtailment of Large Solar in NSW on Thursday afternoon 29th Feb 2024 exacerbated the price volatility
A quick look back at Thu 29th Feb 2024 – a day where afternoon (congestion-based) curtailment of Large Solar in NSW exacerbated the tight supply-demand balance and spot price volatility.
A quick summary of aggregate yield from Large Solar on Tuesday 28th November 2023
A quick look back at Tuesday 28th November 2023, a day of lowest Large Solar yield through 2023 Q4.
So where does NSW peak demand on Thu 29th Feb 2024 sit in historical context?
Putting the high demand seen in NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024 in historical context.
So how much did Eraring Power Station supply, of the NSW electricity consumption, at peak demand time on Thursday 29th February 2024?
Last article (on the day) about Thu 29th Feb 2024. Prompted by an AFR article just over 24 hours ago, how large was the contribution of Eraring Power Station to the NSW electricity region today?
NSW ‘Underlying Demand’ peaks at 15,100MW at 15:00 (NEM time) on Thu 29th Feb 2024
Pulling together an estimate for ‘Underlying Demand’ in NSW for Thursday 29th February 2024, it was very big – and occurred earlier than the peak in ‘Market Demand’, and is measured in different ways by different people.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ peaks at 13764MW
At 16:35 on Thu 29th Feb 2024 the NSW demand peaked at its highest point in summer 2023-24.
A first look at the NSW price spike at 15:10 (NEM time) on Thu 29th Feb 2024
Took a first look at the 15:10 price spike to the $16,600/MWh Market Price Cap in NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024.
NSW hit with first wave of price spikes as demand continues to climb towards 14,000 MW on Thu 29th Feb 2024
We’ve already witnessed four price spikes this afternoon as demand in NSW is approaching its expected peak. P5 forecasts are currently projects prices to remain at very elevated levels for the time being.
‘Market Demand’ in NSW above 13,000MW in mid afternoon Thu 29th Feb 2024
A mid-afternoon update about NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024.
The forecast LOR2 is gone, but forecasts for spicy prices remain for NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024
It’s early afternoon so here’s a quick look at forecasts for NSW on Thursday evening 29th Feb 2024.
A quick look back at the coincident short outages at Tarong 1 and Tarong 2 yesterday
It’s Thursday 29th Feb 2024 and with ‘next day public’ bid data we take a look back at the (very similarly profiled) short notice outages at Tarong unit 1 and unit 2 yesterday (Wed 28th Feb 2024).
Still a forecast LOR2 for NSW on Thursday 29th February 2024, but not as severe as earlier forecasts
AEMO current forecasts (at early afternoon Wed 28th Feb) still show a tight supply-demand balance in NSW for Thu 29th Feb afternoon/evening, but not as severe.
Both Tarong units back online ~3 hours later
Following the earlier trips … TARONG#1 has come online, closely followed by TARONG#2.
Two units at Tarong come offline Wednesday morning 28th Feb 2024 … not planned in advance
TARONG#1 has come offline from close to minimum load this morning, closely followed by TARONG#2 (also from close to minimum load) – Wednesday 28th February 2024
The forecast LOR2 for NSW on Thursday 29th February 2024 grows more extreme…
AEMO updated forecasts for LOR2 in NSW (and now QLD) for Thursday 29th Feb 2024 are now more severe than the earlier forecasts.