Games that self-forecasters can* play (Part 1 – An Overview)
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
Energy Transition
A large collection of articles pertaining to the ongoing ‘Energy Transition’ in any of a number of ways.
Specific sub-categories relate to such things as Coal Closure, and other aspects of the transition.
AEMC draft determination, about ‘Allowing AEMO to accept cash as credit support’
A little over 2 weeks ago (on Thu 3rd April 2025) the AEMC made a draft determination on the rule change proposal by Delta Electricity to allow AEMO to accept cash as credit support.
A boost in transfer capacity with PEC Stage 1
Worth capturing MN126466 published at 11:12 today with respect to PEC Stage 1.
The challenge of imperfect foresight: Storage operation in a highly renewable NEM
Josh Boegheim from Powerlink discusses the limitations of perfect foresight assumptions for system planning—and shares results from a recent study that simulated energy storage dispatch using deterministic and stochastic forecasting approaches.
AER wrote letters to Semi-Scheduled participants (and others) with respect to ‘Expectations surrounding the use of self-forecasting’
At the end of February 2025, the AER wrote to Semi-Scheduled generators, and other interested parties, warning of the AER’s concerns about self-forecasting practices.
Only 14 weeks to go until Frequency Performance Payments
Full financial operation commences 8 June 2025.
Incentivising primary frequency response
The implementation of the Primary frequency response incentive arrangements rule is driving change in how system frequency is controlled and paid-for. The changes stem from how the NEM will incentivise primary frequency response. 6...
Up, up and away … Market Price Cap to increase by $2,800/MWh (or 16%)
The AEMC has announced that the Market Price Cap will increase to $20,300/MWh from 1st July 2025. Should we be so surprised?
Is VRE forecastable? (Part 1 in what might be a series)
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
What’s happened to those Semi-Scheduled units registered to provide FCAS?
Following a question from a client today, we take a quick look at (some of) what the GSD2024 reveals of FCAS market participation of Semi-Scheduled units.
Hot chips, algorithms and electricity markets
Declan Kelly thinks through and discusses competition issues that could arise from the increasing proliferation of auto-bidding software by big batteries in the NEM - and suggests some pre-emptive steps that that could be...
AER published ‘Semi-Scheduled Generator Compliance Bulletin’ on Tuesday 4th February 2025
Two weeks after the AER published its updated Compliance Bulletin (and Compliance Checklist) for Semi-Scheduled units, we've finally found time to note about it.
NEMDE nightmares – parallel pathways and clashing constraints
Prompted by a question by a client in a training session for a new ez2view user, guest author Allan O'Neil has written 2,940 words to explain the price outcome in one particular dispatch interval...
The forgotten market and its critical role in Australia’s transition to clean energy
Anita, Lachlan, and Gilles from ERM Energetics share their thoughts on how financial electricity derivatives must evolve as the energy transition speeds up.
The state-of-charge for 2024: The highs and lows of the big battery boom
Following on from a similar review this time last year, Dan provides an updated look at the economics and performances within the NEM's big battery fleet, making use of our recently released GSD2024.
A look at curtailment through the GSD2024
After reviewing the latest version of our Generator Statistical Digest (GSD), David Leitch shares his top insights about VRE curtailment across the NEM in 2024.
Reviewing LGC creation at Codrington Wind Farm over ~24 years
With the news that Codrington Wind Farm (one of the first in the NEM) is to be closed, we take a quick look at 24 years of history.
Curtailment of Large Solar reaches ~72% (NEM-wide) on Sunday 16th February 2025
Given the situation that unfolded on Sunday 16th February 2025, we take a look at curtailment of Large Solar production (not quite a record).
Whiplash from yo-yo-ing prices (and hence targets etc) on Wednesday morning 12th February 2025
Wednesday morning 12th February 2024 sees rapid and large oscillations in prices across all regions - which results from (and/or leads to) oscillations in output of many units. One of the contributing factors is...
Keeping up with the curtailment 2024: A little? too much? or much ado about nothing?
Drawing from our freshly released GSD2024, Dan provides some deeper insights into curtailment in the NEM, beyond the headline totals that were a topic of much online discussion earlier this week.