A large collection of articles pertaining to the ongoing ‘Energy Transition’ in any of a number of ways.
Specific sub-categories relate to such things as Coal Closure, and other aspects of the transition.
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
This guest-authored post by Cameron Shield from Lockton follows on from his presentation at the CEC's Investor Forum earlier this year, where he urged the audience to "sell risk, don't buy insurance".
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Ben Nethersole from Baringa summarises the different contracting routes available for renewables and storage, and how project business cases are increasingly stacking these together.
Let’s now return to Monday 26th May 2025 to look at aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ across both Semi-Scheduled fuel types for all dispatch intervals in the day.
Taking a closer look at the new 'highest ever' point for NEM-wide Wind Production on Monday 26th May 2025, and how well this was forecast in advance.
AEMO notes that 'At 1700 hrs 20/05/2025, the Buronga No.5 330kV synchronous condenser has been commissioned.'
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
In this article we delve into the indicators we can uncover which point to the increase in market interventions and generator directions over recent years.
A short not tying together several different notes about Callide C - the part buyout by 7GI and resurrection of out voluntary administration (and outage on C3).
Following his presentation at the CEC's Wind Industry Forum, Jonathon Dyson shares lessons learned from helping developers and operators of wind projects in solidifying their business case.
I'm slated to participate at a panel session at the EUAA National Conference on Wednesday 7th May 2025, so have prepared some analysis to talk through...
The way I see it, there are at least these 4 lenses that need to be viewed together to understand the complexities relating to coal closure.
Submissions at the AEMC already closed over a week ago, with respect to their review of WDRM. Here's some starting thoughts ...
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Dan shares a short time-lapse video which demonstrates four days worth of activity in the NEM, highlighting the impact of network congestion in QLD and NSW.
Tristan Edis of Green Energy Markets discusses the practicalities of the gap that must be filled by the gas sector under the nuclear power timeline proposed by the Federal Opposition.