Trended NEM-wide % VRE over 12 days in June 2024
A short article in conjunction with GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, trending NEM-wide % VRE over 12 days in June 2024.
Energy Transition
A large collection of articles pertaining to the ongoing ‘Energy Transition’ in any of a number of ways.
Specific sub-categories relate to such things as Coal Closure, and other aspects of the transition.
A tale of two mega-projects: Project Energy Connect and Snowy 2.0 timelines (Part 2)
In the second half of this two-part case study we look at a timeline of the Snowy 2.0 project, and discuss the history of mega-projects in the NEM.
Tamar Valley CCGT switches off on Tue 23rd July (after running for almost 7 weeks straight)
A quick record of Tamar Valley CCGT coming offline yesterday (Tue 23rd July 2024) after 40 days of solid operations through a low-rain and low-wind winter in Tasmania.
A tale of two mega-projects: Project Energy Connect and Snowy 2.0 timelines (Part 1)
A timeline of evolving expectations for the cost, benefits, and delivery dates for Project Energy Connect – following news of recent issues surrounding the project.
Tamar Valley CCGT clocks over 5 weeks of almost continuous operation at full load in Winter 2024 … but hydro storages still not great
Five weeks on from the re-start of production at Tamar Valley CCGT, it’s still running (and water storage levels in TAS are still low).
Final figures for wind production through 2024 Q2
We’ve ticked over the end of 2024 Q2, so here’s a short note to recap the long-range wind production statistics.
Where’s the wind gone, through 2024 Q2? … with June perhaps even worse than April or May!
Extending the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend of wind production through 2024 Q2 (to 22nd June) and comparing to 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020 reveals a picture that is, at the same time, both frightening … but also completely expected (at least for some).
Correlation between low wind Capacity Factor and low IRPM (NEM-wide) in recent evenings + Thursday evening looks likely to be low, as well.
Given what’s happened for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening this week (and even tighter supply-demand balance forecast for Thursday evening) we take a look at the correlation between low IRPM and low Capacity Factor across all Wind Farms.
Tallawarra B gets a run, on Tuesday 18th June 2024
On Tuesday 18th June 2024, Tallawarra B was running for a period (after a lengthy period offline).
Federal Coalition announces 7 sites proposed for nuclear power
A very short article to record the Federal Coalition’s announcement of possible sites for nuclear power stations.
Gas-fired generation running more strongly in TAS (and Tamar Valley CCGT for the first time) than it has over the past 5 years
Early in June 2024 we see the Tamar Valley CCGT unit running strongly in Tasmania for the first time in just over 5 years … part of the strongest run of gas-fired generation in TAS in a long time.
Reviewing 270 days of bidding at Tallawarra B … following news of delays
Following Colin Packham’s article in the Australian, we take a look in the market data at EnergyAustralia’s Tallawarra B
How predictable is the wind (a short Case Study of Thursday evening 30th May 2024)?
An (initial and) short review of the solid block of high aggregate wind yield over the ~3 day date range (late Tuesday 28th May 2024 to late Friday 31st May 2024) … and how much this was expected in advance.
What impact did the extension to Eraring have on traded prices for NSW Futures?
Reaching for the same NEMreview query we’ve used a few times in 2024 Q2, we take a look at how futures prices have traded in NSW, following the announcement of agreement to extend the service life at Eraring Power Station.
Eraring Power Station extension now in MT PASA DUID Availability data
A short follow-on article to this morning’s (about the notice of extension to service for Eraring Power Station) reflecting the update of AEMO data.
Eraring Power Station closure delayed by 2 years (or maybe 4?)
Thursday morning 23rd May 2024 saw a media News Conference and announcement that Eraring closure will be delayed until August 2027 … or possibly as far out as August 2029.
AEMO releases an update to the 2023 ESOO on Tuesday 21st May 2024
It’s Tuesday 21st May 2024 and the AEMO has published an update to the 2023 ESOO … about 8 months since the publication of the prior release, and 4 months before the 2024 ESOO. Some implications for the anticipated closure of Eraring?
Low wind conditions to persist, NEM-wide, for at least another week
Following an article yesterday about ‘another challenging week for VRE NEM-wide, we take a quick look at forecasts for the coming 7 days and see low wind persisting.
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about ‘another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 – the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
So how much did Eraring Power Station supply, of the NSW electricity consumption, over 5 days to 11th May 2024?
Following a reminder in a phone call today, I’ve updated the date range in a NEMreview trend previously used in February to look at percentage of Underlying Demand in NSW supplied for each half hour over the 5 day period Monday 6th May 2024 to Friday 10th May 2024 (which includes 3 volatile periods leading to Administered Pricing).