Increase in minimum LHS Factors in Constraint Equations gone live Tuesday 2nd December 2025
It’s also worth explicitly calling out the increase in minimum LHS factors (from 0.07 to 0.15) that also went live yesterday (Tuesday 2nd December 2025).
x5 constraint
Early afternoon volatility in NSW, on Wednesday 15th January 2025 … Part 1 in a multi-part exploration
Not long after speaking with a client about forecast evening volatility in NSW for Wednesday 15th January 2025, we see price spikes beginning at 14:00 in the afternoon. So we take a first look....
The VEPC paper ‘No longer lost in transmission’, and the AEMO response
An article today referencing the VEPC paper 'No longer lost in transmission' (about extended VNI-West, and the authors proposed alternative 'Plan B') and the AEMO's initial response.
Bye X5, Hi X5
From 16th March 2023 the infamous 'x5 constraint' has been split into two. We quickly showed previously that the design of the Left Hand Side (LHS) does not vary. In today's article, valued guest...
Splitting the ‘X5 constraint’ into two … double trouble?
From 08:00 (NEM time) this morning, the old 'X5 constraint' (i.e. formerly formally known as 'N^^N_NIL_3') has been split into two (i.e. addressing separately risk of tripping of either/both Bendigo to Kerang 220kV line...
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 … part 2 … (+861MW AggROT – individual units)
In Part 2 of this Case Study, we look at those 15 x Semi-Scheduled units highlighted with large deviations (mostly under-performance) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 in order to understand more.
Brief spike at 11:10 in NSW and QLD on Monday 31st October 2022
A quick article to document a spike at 11:10 on Monday 31st October ... which seems related (at least in part) to the same network outage as on Friday evening.
Price spike in NSW and QLD on Monday 21st February 2022 following trip of Eraring unit 2
As a real time reminder of the energy transition challenges, the trip of Origin's Eraring unit 2 was a significant driver of the price spike in NSW to $15,100/MWh on Tuesday 21st February 2022.
Which units were most impacted by constraints in 2020?
In this (lengthy) article today, Paul McArdle uses the newly released GSD2020 to take a look at the units that were most frequently impacted by constraints during calendar 2020 - with a view to...
Constraint Case Study Followup – Early outcomes of the new “X5 constraint”
On 25th November, guest author Allan O'Neil examined the 'X5 Constraint'. Two weeks of operation have passed, so now Allan reviews some of what's happened.
Case Study – How to interpret a new NEM constraint and guess what it might do
Given the great interest in the new 'X5 constraint', guest author, Allan O'Neil, has invested some time to pick the new constraint equation to understand (and then explain) what it is, how likely it...
More pain ahead for non-synchronous units … a bigger ‘rhombus of regret’ in western NSW & VIC
From tomorrow (Fri 20th Nov) market participants in south-western NSW and north-western VIC will need to grapple with yet another transmission constraint seeking to 'constraint down' their output when it's sunny and/or windy. This...