This is the 10th Case Study in a series working through 98 discrete dispatch intervals of extreme Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Scheduled events. This Case Study looks at only 1 of 5 occasions of extreme collective OVER-performance.
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Two quick notes about what happened in Victoria on Friday 25th January 2019 following conversations with a number of people.
One example of where forecasting wind output seemed to be more difficult than we would hope it could be. Something to be further explored in the Generator Report Card.
As NEM wind power plants progressively work towards implementing FCAS, the criticality of ensuring that the power system either a) takes account of the variability in the wind forecasts coming from the wind power plants in the coming 5-7 minutes and follows the wind direction, or b) sets an appropriate dispatch level to ensure wind variability is minimized, becomes even more important for market and power system operators.
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.