Looking backwards over the past 2 weeks in the NEM
Back at work this week and (with curiosity getting the better of me) I have another look at what happened last Thursday and Friday in the South Australian and Victorian regions of the NEM.
Victoria
My first look at the highs, and lows, in Victoria and South Australia on Thursday 24th January 2019
A first look at some of the action seen in the southern parts of the NEM on Thursday 24th January 2019 as a result of the latest crazy heatwave that has afflicted central Australia – particularly affecting electricity supply and demand in South Australia and Victoria
AEMO dispatches Reserve Trader on Thursday 24th January as IRPM in VIC and SA plunges
A short post, prior to further analysis next week, to notify readers that Reserve Trader has been dispatched today.
NEM Scheduled Demand tops 33,000MW and prices spike in the south on Tuesday 22nd January
Some snapshots from NEMwatch recording a day where NEM-wide demand breached 33,000MW and prices spiked above $1000/MWh in VIC and SA
A potentially extreme temperature forecast for Adelaide and Melbourne next week…
Following AEMO’s warnings issued yesterday about possible extreme heat next week in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, I take more of a look at what might transpire and compare it to historical correlations between cities.
Dispatch Price spikes above $12,000/MWh in VIC and SA today
Two quick snapshots of a high priced day in Victoria and South Australia – with the price jumping above $12,000/MWh at 15:50
Taking a look at Saturday’s Islanding Event through 4 second SCADA data
Following on from Saturday’s islanding event, we use our current interest in AEMO’s 4-second SCADA data to prove a little more…
Reviewing the pattern of spot prices for Q2 2018 suggests that we’re far from out of the woods, yet
Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the “off the charts” level of 2017, but are still much higher in all regions than most other regions. In some cases results are second worst in 20 years.
Electricity demand stopped declining after 2014 (on a NEM-wide, Annual Average basis)
A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.
Available Generation reduction across Loy yang A and Loy Yang B over Sunday evening was only 420MW
A brief look at the numbers with the temporary coal supply issue affecting Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B overnight
Victorian demand rises above 9,000MW – which (in combination with other factors) leads to a volatile day in the southern regions
On a day when high temperatures drove demand in Victoria above 9,000MW (and NEM-wide demand above 30,000MW) we saw some price volatility – with prices in VIC and SA up around $14,000/MWh
Sunday 28th January sees Victorian electricity demand (Scheduled, and Operational) above 9,000MW
Yesterday (Sunday 28th January) saw electricity demand (both Scheduled and Operational) above 9,000MW in the heat. Others have noted this was the highest-ever non-working day demand in Victoria, but I have not delved in detail.
If I were going to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday 18th and Friday 19th, here’s a couple things I would look into…
A starting list of all the factors I would like to delve into, in order to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday and Friday in Victoria and South Australia
Some perspectives on events last Thursday and Friday
Some observations about the events across Victoria and South Australia of Thursday 18th and Friday 19th January 2018.
AEMO dispatches Reserve Trader into a boiling Victorian region on Friday 19th January 2018
Reserve Trader dispatched
AEMO announces intention to (possibly) intervene in Victoria for Friday 19th January (by invoking Reserve Trader)
AEMO announces the possibility of dispatching “Reserve Trader” tomorrow to address a forecast tight supply/demand balance.
Tight supply/demand balance forecast for SA, VIC and TAS on Thursday and Friday
With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…
It’ll be hot in parts of the NEM tomorrow (Saturday 6th Jan) but don’t expect demand to be too high – and don’t be trigger happy on the Emergency Demand Response!
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
Afternoon “Scheduled Demand” in Victoria on Christmas Day drops as low as overnight demand
Afternoon demand on Christmas Day as low as overnight demand as a result of several factors
Coincident warm demand forecast for VIC and NSW tomorrow late afternoon (Monday 18th December)
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.