Sweating on the return of Loy Yang A Unit 2
Taking a quick look at what's forecast for the Victorian region tomorrow, with LOR2-level Low Reserve Condition forecast.
Victoria
Summer reliability back in the headlines
Guest author, Allan O'Neil, provides us an update today on what we can see about summer 2019-20 (in the physical market, and the financial market), now that it is only just around the corner.
Probability, Consequence (and Risk) as it relates to summer 2019-20 in the NEM
With summer 2019-20 fast approaching, we'll use the refresher on the two core components of risk (probability and consequence) to unpick what the real issue is with respect to concerns about overheating electricity supplies...
AEMO forecasts new “lowest ever” demand today in South Australia – but misses by 200MW
A quick look at what would have been a new "lowest ever" point for SA Scheduled Demand today at 12;30 ... if the AEMO forecast had held to be valid.
ConfUSEd by the ESOO? You’re not alone.
I’d rather not add to the number of conspiracy theories in circulation, but I wonder if there’s a conspiracy to make understanding our electricity system in general, and its reliability in particular, as difficult...
A (Much) Deeper Dive into Friday March 1 2019
Guest author, Allan O'Neil, drills into considerable depth to understand, and clearly explain, some of what happened during a volatile period in the VIC and SA regions on Friday 1st March 2019
A brief look back at reactions to negative prices in the 14:30 trading period on Friday 1st March 2019
Yesterday I noted what appeared to be trips of two solar farms - Gannawarra and Karadoc - within a single dispatch interval and coincident with a period of volatile prices. Also yesterday, Dylan McConnell...
Price volatility in VIC and SA on Friday 1st March
Some quick notes about the volatility seen in the NEM on Friday 1st March 2019 - a hot day in Victoria and South Australia, the first day of Autumn.
It’s heating up, in Victoria and South Australia for Friday 1st March
An AEMO Market Notice about "Generator Recall" for Friday's forecast hot weather in South Australia and Victoria prompts a quick look at what's changed in the forecast that would prompt this action.
Two points about the high demand & prices, and the load shedding, on Friday 25th January 2019
Two quick notes about what happened in Victoria on Friday 25th January 2019 following conversations with a number of people.
Looking backwards over the past 2 weeks in the NEM
Back at work this week and (with curiosity getting the better of me) I have another look at what happened last Thursday and Friday in the South Australian and Victorian regions of the NEM.
My first look at the highs, and lows, in Victoria and South Australia on Thursday 24th January 2019
A first look at some of the action seen in the southern parts of the NEM on Thursday 24th January 2019 as a result of the latest crazy heatwave that has afflicted central Australia...
AEMO dispatches Reserve Trader on Thursday 24th January as IRPM in VIC and SA plunges
A short post, prior to further analysis next week, to notify readers that Reserve Trader has been dispatched today.
NEM Scheduled Demand tops 33,000MW and prices spike in the south on Tuesday 22nd January
Some snapshots from NEMwatch recording a day where NEM-wide demand breached 33,000MW and prices spiked above $1000/MWh in VIC and SA
A potentially extreme temperature forecast for Adelaide and Melbourne next week…
Following AEMO's warnings issued yesterday about possible extreme heat next week in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, I take more of a look at what might transpire and compare it to historical correlations between cities.
Dispatch Price spikes above $12,000/MWh in VIC and SA today
Two quick snapshots of a high priced day in Victoria and South Australia - with the price jumping above $12,000/MWh at 15:50
Taking a look at Saturday’s Islanding Event through 4 second SCADA data
Following on from Saturday's islanding event, we use our current interest in AEMO's 4-second SCADA data to prove a little more...
Reviewing the pattern of spot prices for Q2 2018 suggests that we’re far from out of the woods, yet
Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the "off the charts"...
Electricity demand stopped declining after 2014 (on a NEM-wide, Annual Average basis)
A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.
Available Generation reduction across Loy yang A and Loy Yang B over Sunday evening was only 420MW
A brief look at the numbers with the temporary coal supply issue affecting Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B overnight