A starting list of all the factors I would like to delve into, in order to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday and Friday in Victoria and South Australia
Some observations about the events across Victoria and South Australia of Thursday 18th and Friday 19th January 2018.
Reserve Trader dispatched
AEMO announces the possibility of dispatching “Reserve Trader” tomorrow to address a forecast tight supply/demand balance.
With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…
Prompted by a tweet referencing our RenewEconomy-sponsored NEMwatch Widget, we have a quick look at all-time peak instantaneous aggregate wind output in South Australia
A quick review of a hot and sticky day in Queensland that saw high levels of demand reached on a Saturday – with demand peaks tomorrow forecast to be just as high (on a Sunday!). Today saw the first major price spikes in the Queensland region of summer.
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.
AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.
With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.
Queensland demand ramped up, after the sun had gone down Thursday evening, to pass 8000MW for the first time this summer
Some volatility with the hot weather on Wednesday 29th November – is this a precursor for summer?
It’s Saturday 25th November 2017 and what is currently known as “the worlds biggest battery” has kicked into gear – charging for a couple hours this morning.
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, follows up a post in September (reviewing what the AEMO’s ESOO was saying about summer 2017-18) with this review of updated data
Our guest author, Rob Davis, looks at what might emerge for summer 2017-18 given the La Nina outlook, and prior distributions of Cooling Degree Days for Victoria and South Australia
Some initial analysis by our guest author, Allan O’Neil, about what AEMO’s Statement of Opportunities 2017 is saying in terms of this coming summer 2017-18