Is the price right? A historical exploration into the NEM’s price cap
Dan dives into the history of the NEM’s market cap and explores how high-end prices contribute to regional settlement costs and cap payouts.
market modelling
Opening the black box: A beginner’s guide to wholesale market modelling (Part 3)
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 3: "Defense against the dark arts"
Opening the black box: A beginner’s guide to wholesale market modelling (Part 2)
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 2: "Operational dispatch modelling"
Opening the black box: A beginner’s guide to wholesale market modelling (Part 1)
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 1: "Building the Arena"
What’s the 2024 ESOO assume, in terms of coal unit performance?
In this article we explore the 2024 ESOO, and linked documents, in terms of what's assumed for coal unit EFOR - and why, in the light of recent improvements in coal unit performance (compared...
Once through the ESOO (for 2024)
After an initial skim through the 2024 ESOO, here's (the start of) a collation of thoughts that it triggers.
What the last twenty years of the ESOO tells us about blackout predictions
After skimming through the last twenty editions of the ESOO over the past couple of days, Dan shares some thoughts about what has and hasn't changed over the years.
AEMO releases an update to the 2023 ESOO on Tuesday 21st May 2024
It's Tuesday 21st May 2024 and the AEMO has published an update to the 2023 ESOO ... about 8 months since the publication of the prior release, and 4 months before the 2024 ESOO....
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about 'another challenging week' for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 - the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
A precis of the ‘Exploring Wind Diversity’ analysis completed in Appendix 27 of GenInsights21
Almost 2.5 years since we released GenInsights21, today we're publishing this article that contains a precis of the analysis included as Appendix 27 under the title 'Exploring Wind Diversity'.
Optimising a highly renewable NEM from scratch, Part 2
In Part 2 of their modelling and analysis project, David Leitch and Paul Bandarian discuss the modelled results of their sharpe ratio-maximised VRE system, including additional considerations regarding transmission.
AEMO released draft of 2024 Integrated System Plan … cue the media headlines
It's Friday 15th December 2023 and the AEMO has published its draft of the 2024 ISP, in time for everyone's Christmas reading list
Worth a read – ESIG Report ‘Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems’
This morning I was fortunate to listen into an ESIG Webinar with respect to their report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems'
Here’s 7 Observations that jumped out to me in a first skim of the 2023 ESOO
Apart from a distraction early this morning, I've invested some hours today in review of the 2023 ESOO. Here's 7 initial observations that jumped out at me.
With the 2023 ESOO report, different views about which USE figure should the AEMO have led with?
Here's my view on whether Figure 2 should have preceded Figure 1 (with respect to projections of unserved energy ... USE) in the 2023 ESOO.
The 2023 ESOO report clarifies why the transmission model only includes ‘System Normal’ – and why it’s a simplification
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that AEMO is has highlighted the set of constraints modelled is only 'System Normal'.
The 2023 ESOO modelling provides a more accurate real world depiction of Wind Farm limitations at high temperatures
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that AEMO is now modelling (more accurately) the high temperature degradation on wind farm performance.
AEMO releases 2023 ESOO on Thursday 31st August 2023 (Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge)
AEMO notes that 'Australia's NEM is perched on the edge' in the 2023 ESOO, released today (Thu 31st Aug 2023)
The VEPC paper ‘No longer lost in transmission’, and the AEMO response
An article today referencing the VEPC paper 'No longer lost in transmission' (about extended VNI-West, and the authors proposed alternative 'Plan B') and the AEMO's initial response.
How dispatch works … it’s much more than just a bid stack
New guest author, Ryan Esplin progressively builds a more precise model of the NEMDE dispatch process to illustrate why the stylised 'Merit Order' bid stack model is increasingly not enough to explain dispatch and...