Oliver Nunn (from Endgame Analytics) illustrates how wind droughts are ‘a thing’
Returning for the second day of CEC QCES in the 'Long Duration Energy Storage' Oliver Nunn shared more insights from the Endgame modelling.
market modelling
CleanCo modelled results of one scenario in a year late in the next decade
Flagging two charts that Rimu talked through to sum up some of the observations he made about some modelled results for some (unstated) year late in the next decade.
Six different lenses to view the ESOO 2025 … giving wildly different perspectives
About 4 weeks ago the 2025 ESOO was released. In this article we highlight 3 x 2 different ways this might be viewed - and note some other dimensions not considered.
‘the ISP Step Change Scenario is divorced from reality’
A short note about some comments made by Oliver Nunn during the 'Faster than Forecast' session at Queensland Clean Energy Summit on Mon 15th Sept 2025.
‘June 12 was one of the most challenging days of the last 4 years’
It was with interest that one of our team members noted David Osmond’s comment earlier today when he said 'June 12 was one of the most challenging days of the last 4 years ...'
Is the price right? A historical exploration into the NEM’s price cap
Dan dives into the history of the NEM’s market cap and explores how high-end prices contribute to regional settlement costs and cap payouts.
Opening the black box: A beginner’s guide to wholesale market modelling (Part 3)
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 3: "Defense against the dark arts"
Opening the black box: A beginner’s guide to wholesale market modelling (Part 2)
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 2: "Operational dispatch modelling"
Opening the black box: A beginner’s guide to wholesale market modelling (Part 1)
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 1: "Building the Arena"
What’s the 2024 ESOO assume, in terms of coal unit performance?
In this article we explore the 2024 ESOO, and linked documents, in terms of what's assumed for coal unit EFOR - and why, in the light of recent improvements in coal unit performance (compared...
Once through the ESOO (for 2024)
After an initial skim through the 2024 ESOO, here's (the start of) a collation of thoughts that it triggers.
What the last twenty years of the ESOO tells us about blackout predictions
After skimming through the last twenty editions of the ESOO over the past couple of days, Dan shares some thoughts about what has and hasn't changed over the years.
AEMO releases an update to the 2023 ESOO on Tuesday 21st May 2024
It's Tuesday 21st May 2024 and the AEMO has published an update to the 2023 ESOO ... about 8 months since the publication of the prior release, and 4 months before the 2024 ESOO....
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about 'another challenging week' for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 - the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
A precis of the ‘Exploring Wind Diversity’ analysis completed in Appendix 27 of GenInsights21
Almost 2.5 years since we released GenInsights21, today we're publishing this article that contains a precis of the analysis included as Appendix 27 under the title 'Exploring Wind Diversity'.
Optimising a highly renewable NEM from scratch, Part 2
In Part 2 of their modelling and analysis project, David Leitch and Paul Bandarian discuss the modelled results of their sharpe ratio-maximised VRE system, including additional considerations regarding transmission.
AEMO released draft of 2024 Integrated System Plan … cue the media headlines
It's Friday 15th December 2023 and the AEMO has published its draft of the 2024 ISP, in time for everyone's Christmas reading list
Worth a read – ESIG Report ‘Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems’
This morning I was fortunate to listen into an ESIG Webinar with respect to their report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems'
Here’s 7 Observations that jumped out to me in a first skim of the 2023 ESOO
Apart from a distraction early this morning, I've invested some hours today in review of the 2023 ESOO. Here's 7 initial observations that jumped out at me.
With the 2023 ESOO report, different views about which USE figure should the AEMO have led with?
Here's my view on whether Figure 2 should have preceded Figure 1 (with respect to projections of unserved energy ... USE) in the 2023 ESOO.