Evening spot prices less volatile than anticipated in SA on July 2, 2025
Spot price volatility occurs in SA on 2 July 2025, yet not to the level that risks exceeding the cumulative price threshold.
low wind production
East coast low brings challenging conditions for start of July in 2025
The weather forecasts are alerting to the formation of an East Coast Low this week. The low is expected to sit just off the eastern cost of Australia, adjacent New South Wales.
How low did it go? NEM-wide wind production in recent days
We've already noted the ‘New all-time record for NEM-wide wind, on Monday 23rd June 2025’. But how low did wind production drop, on Thursday 26th June 2025?
Low wind yield drops lower, on Thursday evening 12th June 2025
One other snippet of information to share this evening (Thursday 12th June 2025) is about the low NEM-wide wind harvest... lower than earlier forecasts.
A first look into the LOR3 (a.k.a. ‘load shedding’) forecast for NSW on Monday 16th December 2024
With AEMO forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW for periods of time on Monday 16th December 2024, in this WattClarity article we take a first look. More to come *as time permits* (and...
Here’s a few things to watch, w.r.t. the forecast tight supply-demand balance in NSW (and QLD) for early next week
In this article on Wednesday evening 20th November 2024 we suggest a couple factors to keep an eye on, leading into the expected tight supply-demand balance (and possible load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday...
Taking a look inside South Australia’s lengthy run of volatility on Monday 23rd September 2024 (Part 2 of a Case Study)
There was an ‘Evening blast of spot price volatility in South Australia on Monday 23rd September 2024’ ... roughly 6 weeks ago. Today, for several reasons, we start to take a closer look.
Forecast tight supply-demand balance (i.e. LOR2) for QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024
Worth a short note, given the alerts from ez2view have continued to buzz in recent days, as the AEMO continues to update forecast LOR2 warnings for both QLD and NSW regions for Thursday 7th...
Evening burst of volatility across the NEM on Monday 5th August 2024
A slightly longer summary (compared to this morning's) of some evening volatility (across the NEM) on Monday evening 5th August 2024.
How rare are simultaneous price spikes in all five NEM regions, like what we saw last night?
A short examination of some of the over-arching factors at play yesterday evening - where prices spiked above $3,000/MWh in all five regions simultaneously.
Final figures for wind production through 2024 Q2
We've ticked over the end of 2024 Q2, so here's a short note to recap the long-range wind production statistics.
Where’s the wind gone, through 2024 Q2? … with June perhaps even worse than April or May!
Extending the 'worm line' cumulative trend of wind production through 2024 Q2 (to 22nd June) and comparing to 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020 reveals a picture that is, at the same time, both frightening...
190 minutes of low IRPM (reaching 11.01% at 18:05) on Thursday evening 20th June 2024
A brief recap on another consecutive evening of low NEM-wide IRPM - on Thursday 20th June 2024.
A look at where the wind has and hasn’t been blowing over the last three nights
A look into the geographic spread and diversity of wind production over the past three evenings, where we've seen supply-demand tightness across the NEM.
A brief review of the (only!) 88MW of wind output NEM-wide at 13:20 on Thursday 13th June 2024
In an earlier article today, we identified the 13:20 dispatch interval on Thursday 13th June 2024 was one with very, very low level of wind ... in this short article we take a very...
Correlation between low wind Capacity Factor and low IRPM (NEM-wide) in recent evenings + Thursday evening looks likely to be low, as well.
Given what's happened for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening this week (and even tighter supply-demand balance forecast for Thursday evening) we take a look at the correlation between low IRPM and low Capacity Factor...
Cold temperatures and low wind push NEM-wide IRPM down to 11.76% on Monday 17th June 2024
This evening we are experiencing a tight supply-demand balance NEM-wide, stemming from cold temperatures, and low wind conditions across the southern states.
More detail on the poor wind yield through (most of!) April and May 2024
With the April-May 2024 period ending with 3 days during which it blew a gale, this wind powered energy generation provided some small boost to aggregate results in 2024 that disappointed when compared against...
Highest-ever wind yield … *and* worst wind yield since June 2017!
… it does not seem logical that both can be true, but (from our look at the numbers) it does appear to be!
Low aggregate wind yield after sunset continues – Sunday 26th May 2024
The pattern of low aggregate wind production in the evenings after sunset (whilst demand is still peaking) continues ... into Sunday 26th May 2024.