Earlier today, Josh Stabler spoke at the Energy Users Association of Australia (EUAA) conference in Melbourne about “the timeline of energy scarcity’. His presentation focused on rising spot and futures prices throughout the four mainland regions of the NEM.
Guest author Carl Daley from EnergyByte provides this summary of record-setting spot price outcomes throughout April. Carl also looks at how generator outages, rising global LNG and thermal coal prices, and other factors are putting pressure on spot prices.
Now making it 5 out of the past 6 years, we return to the analysis of electricity (spot and futures) pricing patterns for Q2 periods across the NEM regions … and also in Western Australia. We see a number of ways in which Q2 2021 was ‘anything but boring’!
Discussion in a number of different places (including an AFR article today) prompted me to pull some data together of how (spot and futures) prices have trended through 2021, and how they changed with the Callide C4 problems.
Prompted by several different conversations offline in early 2021, I’ve taken a quick look at what have been traded volumes (on ASX) of the traditional ‘PEAK’ hedge contract for the NSW, QLD, VIC and SA regions. What does this tell us about a market view of the energy transition?
Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the “off the charts” level of 2017, but are still much higher in all regions than most other regions. In some cases results are second worst in 20 years.
Illustrating how the price spike on 14th January flowed through to hedge contract prices.