Prompted by several different conversations offline in early 2021, I’ve taken a quick look at what have been traded volumes (on ASX) of the traditional ‘PEAK’ hedge contract for the NSW, QLD, VIC and SA regions. What does this tell us about a market view of the energy transition?
Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the “off the charts” level of 2017, but are still much higher in all regions than most other regions. In some cases results are second worst in 20 years.
Illustrating how the price spike on 14th January flowed through to hedge contract prices.