At 13:06 NEM time the AEMO published MN121831 and 121833 noting the cancellation of the forecast LOR3 that was in place for both Monday 16th December 2024 and Tuesday 17th December 2024.
We’ll explore ‘what’s changed?’ more in subsequent articles – but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme …
Third article already this morning looking ahead to what’s forecast for Monday 16th December 2024 … longer duration (and deeper) LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW + also LOR2 in Victoria.
With AEMO forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW for periods of time on Monday 16th December 2024, in this WattClarity article we take a first look. More to come *as time permits* (and as situations change, etc…).
“Surely not again so soon!?” … was my first response at reading MN121734 published at 00:42 (NEM time) on Thursday 12th December 2024, forecasting LOR3 (a.k.a. load shedding) in NSW for Monday 16th December 2024.
The outlook for load shedding in NSW on the 27th of November 2024 remains a possibility, yet recent STPASA runs indicate some movement in a positive direction is ocurring.
Given the tight supply-demand balance forecast for NSW and QLD this week, it’s worth revisiting the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view at 15:35 on Sunday 24th November 2024 to show what the current status is of generator outage plans
A very quick post to look at one of the several reasons we are seeing LOR3 and LOR2 forecasts for NSW and Queensland respectively next Wednesday (27 November). Previous posts from Paul (including this one) have looked at a range…
AEMO’s MN120879 rates special mention, given the size of largest load shedding forecast for NSW on Wednesday afternoon/evening is above 1,000MW.
The most recent ST PASA forecast now shows a sliver of forecast LOR3 (i.e. forecast Load Shedding) for the NSW region on Wed 27th Nov 2024
In the >36 hours since an article on Wednesday the forecasts for LORx on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have become less strident. We start to look at why…
It should be no surprise to readers that we’ve more recently slipped back below that threshold line (back into ‘forecast LOR3’ territory) in MN120725 published at 17:10 on Wed 20th Nov 2024.
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled … but only just.
AEMO’s latest update at 10:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024 in MN120702 shows the forecast severity of LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024 has dropped (but not disappeared).
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week … so it’s no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
AEMO’s MN120671 forecast LOR3 was published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted.
A LOR3 is projected for NSW on 26 November 2024.
AEMO updated forecasts for LOR2 in NSW (and now QLD) for Thursday 29th Feb 2024 are now more severe than the earlier forecasts.
An ST PASA data update on Monday morning 29th January 2024 forecasts LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) for Thursday morning 1st February 2024
A quick initial look at (what appears to be) a strange aberration in the AEMO forecast data, with load shedding briefly forecast in NSW tomorrow morning.