The accelerating rise of Negative Prices in the NEM
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM ... and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
Articles by Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
Reflections (from afar) on the electricity shortages and load shedding in Texas
Watching what's unfolded in Texas over the past 24 hours has been rather disconcerting ... but also prompted questions about the broader energy transition. Here are some thoughts.
Low demand experienced in SA on Sunday 14th February 2021
Today (Sunday 14th February 2021) 'Scheduled Demand' dropped down again in South Australia - almost setting a new record for 'lowest point since the start of the NEM (excl System Black)'
Victoria’s snap lockdown drops demand forecast by ~1000MW
In the middle of the day today (Fri 12th Feb) VIC Premier Dan Andrews announced a snap lockdown - here's a quick look at how this was (quickly) added into the ST PASA Operational...
Pain at AGL Energy … part 2
Following last week's ASX & Media Release, this week's half-year results presented by AGL Energy has more questions being asked. Here are some ...
AEMO publishes Handbook for Wind and Solar Generators
As promised in the Intermittent Generation Forum late in 2020, the AEMO has released an important Handbook for operators of Semi-Scheduled (wind and solar) assets.
Which units were most impacted by constraints in 2020?
In this (lengthy) article today, Paul McArdle uses the newly released GSD2020 to take a look at the units that were most frequently impacted by constraints during calendar 2020 - with a view to...
AGL Energy announces $2.6b impairment … of which $1.9b for legacy wind farm off-take agreements
Today AGL Energy announces a big impairment ... with a big chunk related to long-term wind offtake agreements which AGL entered into between 2006 and 2012.
The Generator Statistical Digest 2020 (GSD2020) is released
From Monday 1st Feb 2021 the (720-page) Generator Statistical Digest 2020 is more broadly available - here's some of what's in it, and how you can access. Those dozens of clients who had submitted...
Prior to the wider release of the GSD2020 … here’s a 10-year trend of bidding behaviour
A chart we threw together quickly at Beer O'Clock today (from the imminent release of the GSD2020) was worth sharing more broadly on WattClarity today...
AEMO releases ‘Quarterly Energy Dynamics’ for Q4 2020
Quite a synergistic coincidence today that, at the same time as we are finalizing the release of the GSD2020, we see the AEMO publishes its Quarterly Energy Dynamics for Q4 2020.
Average spot prices through 2020 down at levels not seen for many years
Several conversations this week prompted me to update the long-term view of how spot prices have trended over time (in particular because average prices in 2020 were quite different than recent years).
Heavy rain across Victoria squashes Small and Large Solar on Friday 29th January 2021
Short article today observing higher Scheduled Demand in VIC - which appears to be in large part due to state-wide suppression of solar PV production with heavy cloud and rainfall.
Cool change arrives in Melbourne early on Monday 25th January 2021, dampening high demand expectations
Forecasts was that it would be hot across Victoria, and demand would be high, through Monday 25th January 2021. But the cool change arrived early.
Sunday 24th Jan 2021 (part 2) – down to the wire (because of bushfire) in South Australia
Second article today, focusing on what happened late in the afternoon and into the evening in South Australia.
Sunday 24th Jan 2021 – a couple discrete incidents
It was forecast it would be a hot day in the southern part of the NEM and it did not disappoint. The hot weather was one of the factors that contributed to price spikes...
High temperatures, and high demand, forecast for Monday 25th January 2021
Following several different warnings of high temperatures forecast for the lead-in to Tuesday 26th January 2021 (whatever you want to call that day) I've taken a quick look at what it's currently forecast to...
Yesterday’s unexpected loss of ~500MW of rooftop PV in South Australia (another type of Contingency event – Credible, or Non-Credible?)
Wednesday 13th January 2021 was a busy day in the NEM, with a couple of different events occurring. In this article we explore a sudden and unexpected drop in output across both rooftop PV...
NEM Local Temperature alert for Dalby (QLD) for Sat 16th Jan 2021 … an opportunity to check the draft GSD2020
Today (Wed 13th Jan 2021) a high temperature alert published by AEMO for the Dalby area in southern QLD prompted a quick look at what the GSD2020 shows, in terms of high-temperature limitations of...
Both units trip at Callide C on Wednesday 13th January 2021
A pretty rare event in the NEM, when two units trip simultaneously ... so a short article on WattClarity as a result.