Firstly, let’s briefly recap a timeline of significant events:

• Let’s not forget the sustained period of bluster and posturing (and some negotiations) beforehand … but (as you will see below, not much effect on trader sentiment);
• Last Saturday 28th February 2026 was the day when attacks commenced (a.k.a ‘Operation Epic Fury’ or ‘Operation Roaring Lion’), with Israel’s bombs (amongst other things) killing Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• On Tuesday we noted how we noted how ‘Qatar Energy to stop production of LNG (on 2nd March 2026)’.
• Then today we noted how ‘Qatar Energy declares Force Majeure’.

That’s 4 days trading futures on ASX Energy (and 3 days of ‘end of day’ futures data accessible via the ‘Trends Engine’ in ez2view) … so I quickly pulled together these trend views for the four mainland regions to take a quick look at how

QLD region

Starting in the Queensland region, we see the following:

Readers can remember to click on the image for a larger-screen view, and licensed ez2view users can click on this link to open their own copy of this trend here, which will update through until the end of 2026 Q2.

As per the annotations:

1)  The headline is clearly that (whilst there may have been other contributing factors) it clearly seems that the action in the Middle East has already started to flow through to NEM traders’ collective assessment of risk for delivered spot prices in 2026 Q2!

… with memories of the 2022 Energy Crisis presumably top of mind (given the role of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine featuring as one of the significant factors in that event).

2)  In contrast, we see that prices for 2026 Q1 (both BASE and CAP) have generally been softening in the absence of any sustained volatility through 2026 Q1.

NSW region

Moving south to NSW, we see the following:

Readers can remember to click on the image for a larger-screen view, and licensed ez2view users can click on this link to open their own copy of this trend here, which will update through until the end of 2026 Q2.

With this trend:

1)  We see the same things as highlighted above for QLD:

(a)  An uplift (more substantial in NSW) for 2026 Q2 (both BASE and CAP)

(b)  Whilst general softening for 2026 Q1;

2)  But, as per the annotations, useful to highlight the impact on 2026 Q1 of a couple days of volatility

… particularly Thursday 5th February 2026 in NSW

VIC region

Down south in the Victorian region, we see the following:

Readers can remember to click on the image for a larger-screen view, and licensed ez2view users can click on this link to open their own copy of this trend here, which will update through until the end of 2026 Q2.

With this chart:

1)  We see some uptick this week in Q2 prices (both BASE and CAP)

… though not to the extent of QLD and NSW

2)  But it’s also worth flagging that for this region (and SA below) we extended both y-axes down below $0/MWh to cater for the increasing number of days where the time-weighted average price for the whole day is below zero

… particularly noting 25th December 2025 as the ‘worst’ day in that way.

SA region

Moving westwards to the SA region, we see the following:

Readers can remember to click on the image for a larger-screen view, and licensed ez2view users can click on this link to open their own copy of this trend here, which will update through until the end of 2026 Q2.

With this chart:

1)  If you squint you can see a small uptick in prices for Q2 (both BASE and CAP) that would seem to be attributable to the hostilities (at least in part);

2)  But to me the far more obvious development with the step change in Q1 prices (both BASE and CAP) which:

(a)  Resulted from the significant volatility on Monday 26th January 2026 and also Tuesday morning 27th January 2026;

(b)  Which will have been partly a result of the underlying volatility in the spot prices and the direct flow-through effect in uplift of

(c)  But (again remembering the market trades on sentiment and emotion as well) I also wonder how much of the boost was due to that Monday’s rude reminder that the states installed battery capacity are not yet the panacea.

… perhaps not fully the magic wand that some traders had been lulled into assuming they were?

3)  Also worth re-iterating how thinly traded this market is.

A couple weeks ago (on Wednesday 18th February 2026) I gave a presentation about how ‘the level of Risk in the NEM are increasing’.  Here’s just one more example…