Updates (at 14:30) about Victoria on Friday 9th January 2026.

Two hours ago, we shared a snapshot from ez2view focused on the 12:30 dispatch interval NEM time on Friday 9th January 2026.

… this was in the article ‘Friday 9th Jan as a rerun of Wednesday 7th Jan 2026 in Victoria?’.

Some readers will appreciate some updates via this snapshot of NEMwatch at 14:30 (i.e. two hours later):

I’ve highlighted three different Market Notices that all relate to Victoria today in various ways … we’ll first start with MN132608 published at 11:29 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     09/01/2026     11:29:12

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         132608
Notice Type ID          :         POWER SYSTEM EVENTS
Notice Type Description :         Emergency events/conditions
Issue Date              :         09/01/2026
External Reference      :         Non-credible contingency event – VIC region – 09/01/2026

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.

Non-credible contingency event – VIC region – 09/01/2026

At 1055 hrs the Geelong Moorabool No 1 and 2 220kV lines tripped.

AEMO did not instruct load shedding.

AEMO has not been advised of any disconnection of bulk electrical load.

The cause of this non credible contingency event is not known at this stage.
AEMO is not satisfied that this non credible event is unlikely to re-occur.
AEMO has therefore reclassified this event as a credible contingency event until further notice.

Region: VIC

Elements: Geelong Moorabool No 1 and 2 220kV lines
Duration: 11:15 hrs 09/01/2026 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked: Nil

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘

Not sure if related to the heat, or something else entirely.  Then there was MN132612 at 13:29 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     09/01/2026     13:29:26

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         132612
Notice Type ID          :         RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY
Notice Type Description :         Reclassify contingency events
Issue Date              :         09/01/2026
External Reference      :         Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Dederang – South Morang No 1 and 2 330kV lines in VIC due to Bushfire.

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.

Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Bushfire.

AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.

Region: VIC

Lines: Dederang – South Morang No 1 and 2 330kV lines

Duration:13:25 hrs 09/01/2026 until further notice

Constraint set(s) invoked: V-DDSM

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

… and now there’s been MN132616 at 14:21 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     09/01/2026     14:21:47

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         132616
Notice Type ID          :         INTER-REGIONAL TRANSFER
Notice Type Description :         Inter-Regional Transfer limit variation
Issue Date              :         09/01/2026
External Reference      :         Inter-regional transfer limit variation – constraint automation to manage Power System Security in VIC region – 09/01/2026

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

In order to maintain the power system in a secure operating state in the VIC region, AEMO has invoked automated constraint set CA_BRIS_58730C07 from 1410 hrs until further notice.
This constraint set contains equations with the following interconnector on the LHS;

V-S-MNSP1
VIC1-NSW1

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

These network impacts are delivering price escalation earlier/greater than was forecast beforehand – as a result of a fair number of units in VIC being ‘constrained down/off’ – we can see a number of things in this snapshot from ez2view focused on the 14:45 dispatch interval NEM time on Friday 9th January 2026:

Also worth posting a view of the VIC1-NSW1 in the ‘Interconnector Dashboard’ widget to see the effect of overlapping (bound) constraint equations:

A challenging day … (especially for those affected directly by the bushfires).