Updates (at 15:35) about Victoria on Friday 9th January 2026.

This follows:

• the 12:30 update in ‘Friday 9th Jan as a rerun of Wednesday 7th Jan 2026 in Victoria?’.
• and the subsequent ‘Updates (at 14:30) about Victoria on Friday 9th January 2026’

Here’s a snapshot from NEMwatch at 15:35 (NEM time) on Friday 9th January 2026:

Let’s briefly highlight three things:

1)  The temperatures started to drop a little in Geelong … presumably as part of the forecast change in weather pattern

2)  We see, negative residue management constraint operations have kicked in for both VIC1-NSW1 and VIC1-SA1 to further complicate things.

3)  Finally, we now see MN132618 at 15:25 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     09/01/2026     15:25:20

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         132618
Notice Type ID          :         RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY
Notice Type Description :         Reclassify contingency events
Issue Date              :         09/01/2026
External Reference      :         Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Yallourn – Rowville 7 220 kV line and Yallourn – Rowville 8 220 kV line in VIC1 due to Lightning.

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.

Region: VIC1

Lines: Yallourn – Rowville 7 220 kV and Yallourn – Rowville 8 220 kV

Duration: 09/01/2026 15:25 until further notice

Constraint set(s) invoked:
V-ROYP78_R_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NONE

Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

This ‘V-ROYP78_R_N-2’ Constraint set is probably not going to have much real effect, as its only YWPS1 and YWPS4 online, and it looks like YWPS1 is in 500kV mode.