NSW ‘Market Demand’ past 12,000MW … how high will it go (on Friday 19th December 2025)?

Let’s start with this NEMwatch snapshot at 13:45 with ‘Market Demand’ for NSW at 12,137MW.

2025-12-19-at-13-45-NEMwatch

 

That level’s only ~400MW or so below what the earlier forecasts had pegged for peak ‘Market Demand’ today … but clearly it’s going to blast right through that mark (unless some unforeseen forecast cool change eventuates).

We can see the big discrepancy clearly in this collage of two instances of ‘Forecast Convergence’ in ez2view, focused on ‘Market Demand’ in NSW – the P5 forecast at the top and the P30 forecast at the bottom:

2025-12-19-at-13-45-ez2view-NSW-DemandForecastConvergence

 

What’s happening now reminds me, to some extent, of what we saw unfold in the QLD region on 22nd January 2024.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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