A forecast LOR2 pops up for South Australia on Thursday 15th May 2025

A quick note to flag MN126998 published at 14:03 on Monday 12th May 2025 looking forwards to Thursday 15th May 2025 as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     12/05/2025     14:03:00

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Notice ID               :         126998
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         12/05/2025
External Reference      :         STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the SA Region on 15/05/2025

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the SA region for the following period:

From 1030 hrs to 1230 hrs 15/05/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 438 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 401 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Here’s a collage of 4 different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view as at 14:30 (NEM time) on Monday 12th May 2025, zoomed into looking at the mid-afternoon period on  Thursday 15th May 2025:

With respect to these widgets:

1)  Remember that one can use these to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.

2)  Whilst the immediate trigger for the ‘forecast LOR2’ was the drop in aggregate Available Generation appearing to be due to some Firming Capacity being re-scheduled for outage;

3)  It’s also worth highlighting the underlying forecasts via UIGF that:

(a)  The same period would see very low wind conditions; and also

(b)  Some impacts of cloud cover on forecast solar availability.

We’ll see what unfolds – but there are plenty of occasions such as this that lead to AEMO Intervention (as a segue into another article coming soon).