Afternoon volatility begins in NSW on Wednesday 14th May 2025

Whilst in the process of publishing ‘Part 2 of a Case Study – looking into evening volatility in NSW on Tuesday 13th May 2025’, I wondered about the possibility of price volatility this evening.

And that’s what happened simultaneously … here’s a snapshot from NEMwatch at the 16:20 dispatch interval (NEM time):

In particular note that:

1)  This is the first dispatch interval with a price spike; and that

2)  Like noted yesterday in Part 1, see the slightly earlier ramp up in production from hydro units in NSW

… presumably similar behaviour at TUMUT3 again?

3)  Same as yesterday, VIC1-NSW1 is constrained such that it must flow south heavily; and

4)  There’s also low wind production … which is presumably some combination of:

(a)  Low wind resource at the present time;

(b)  Coupled with transmission congestion (those same constraints again!) limiting output further from wind farms in the south.