A short article to follow this this morning’s note … which, in turn, followed Friday’s note that ‘NEM-wide demand on Monday 16th December forecast to be highest in almost 4 years’.
In this short article we include a single snapshot of ez2view at the 15:45 dispatch interval with three copies of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget, all focused on (different) NEM-wide data variables:
These windows are as follows:
1) On the left, we show ‘Market Demand’, and we see that the ‘actuals’ are running stronger than recent forecasts (since about sunrise this morning);
2) On the top-right, we show the UIGF for Large Solar across the NEM, and see that ‘actuals’ are running weaker than earlier forecasts (since around mid-morning)
(a)… not shown here, but we wonder if the AEMO forecasts for rooftop PV (which remember are netted off ‘Underlying Demand’ to leave ‘Market Demand’) are also running weaker than earlier forecasts.
(b) note that the UIGF ‘measures’ (or, more accurately, estimates) the capability to produce … in this case from Large Solar … before considering either:
i. curtailment due to constraints (network congestion … which appears widespread this afternoon + plus for other reasons)
ii. economic curtailment (which should not be the case, given the pricing).
3) On the bottom-right, we show the UIGF for Wind across the NEM, and see that ‘actuals’ are running weaker than earlier forecasts (since early afternoon)
(a) note that the UIGF ‘measures’ (or, more accurately, estimates) the capability to produce … in this case from Wind … before considering either:
i. curtailment due to constraints (network congestion … which appears widespread this afternoon + plus for other reasons)
ii. economic curtailment (which should not be the case, given the pricing).
That’s all for now ….
Just to clarify,
a/ large scale wind and solar being below forecast doesn’t directly affect market demand – they are part of the fleet that supplies that market demand (except for non-scheduled plant which is a small fraction of wind/solar).
b/ but large scale solar availability being below forecast could well correlate with small scale rooftop PV also being below forecast – this does directly affect market demand, as explained in Paul’s post.