Early reprieve for NSW electricity supply from demand pressure

Seemingly

1. just as RERT is triggered,
2. demand drops in NSW,
3.  likely aided by cooling rains in the west that have moved eastward towards and over Sydney.

The RERT intervention has been configured to end at 18:00

We noted that RERT was triggered in Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader triggered on 27 November, 2024, NSW. That was at 15:47.

Since then the RERT intervention has been configured to end at 18:00 in MN 121100 issued at 16:47.

MARKET NOTICE 121100
________________________________________________________________________________________________

Notice ID 121100
Notice Type ID Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Notice Type Description MARKET
Issue Date Wednesday, 27 November 2024
External Reference RERT DISPATCHED
________________________________________________________________________________________________

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.

AEMO Intervention Event, Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) - NSW1 Region- 27/11/2024

Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 121054
AEMO has dispatched/activated reserve contract(s) to maintain the power system in a Reliable operating state.
The reserve contract(s) was dispatched/activated at 15:45 hrs 27/11/2024 and is forecast to apply until 18:00 hrs 27/11/2024
AEMO has implemented an AEMO intervention event for the duration the reserve contract(s) is dispatched/activated/
To facilitate the RERT process, constraints commencing with the following identifiers may be evident at various times in dispatch,

#RT_NSW1


Manager NEM Real Time Operations

Note it is forecast to end at 18:00. It seems prudent to keep it available to make sure we are in the clear supply-wise.

Demand dropped after 15:30

We observed a distinct decline in market demand relative the the P30 forecasts (total demand in MMS-speak) following the 15:30 interval – roughly just as RERT was triggered.

This screenshot was taken at 16:50, showing how NSW demand dropped considerably from forecast levels:

At this early stage we didn’t observe the impact of RERT on NSW demand levels. This suggests (at this early stage in looking back) that any large loads that were activated had not been dispatched to reduce; RERT from such resources may have been  ‘activated but not not used’. (That’s not to say that other forms of RERT,  not visible to us in real time, may have been used instead).

Update looking back from the 28th: 65 MW appears to have been dispatched across a 1-hour duration.

The rain would have helped to cool things down

Coastal sea breezes were also prevalent along the coastline but were not penetrating too far inland, and tending more ‘cross-shore’ from the north.

Here’s a screenshot of the Bureau of Meteorology’ rain radar from 15:34 showing the extent of rain at that time:

At 16:52 and 16:53 directions to Warratah BESS and Wallgrove BESS were announced to end (from 16:45)  in market notices 121108 and 121109 respectively. These directions were to maintain a level of charge and follow dispatch instructions in line with NER Clause 4.8.9 (a) (1)

“to maintain or re-establish the power system to a secure operating state, a satisfactory operating state, or a reliable operating state;”.

The direction for the Wallgrove BESS was noted in Iberdrola’s Wallgrove BESS directed to maintain state of charge on Wednesday afternoon, 27th Nov 2024. A similar direction was issued to the Warratah BESS in MN121083.