AEMO MT PASA update on 19th November 2024 notes Low Reserve Conditions for NSW and Victoria for summer 2024-25

We’ve just noticed ST PASA updates warning of tight supply-demand balance in the near term, via ‘AEMO updates forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024’.

…

Worth also noting that this morning at 08:07 the AEMO MN120612 warns of Low Reserve Conditions for summer 2024-25 in both NSW and Victoria as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     19/11/2024     08:07:37

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         120612
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         19/11/2024
External Reference      :         RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA PUBLICATION 19 November 2024

——————————————————————-

Reason :

The MTPASA result published on 19 November 2024 identifies Low Reserve Conditions as annual unserved energy exceeds the Reliability Standard between:
— November 2024 – November 2025 in New South Wales and Victoria

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER) for the following region(s) and periods:
— November 2024 and January – March 2025 in Victoria
— November 2024 – February 2025 in New South Wales
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

Please note MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy

This notice supersedes Market Notice 120282 published on 12 November 2024.

Background

As part of a broader process of implementing the reliability standard, AEMO runs the Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MTPASA) process weekly to forecast expected unserved energy levels over a two year period. If the expected annual unserved energy exceeds the maximum level specified by the Reliability Standard, a Low Reserve Condition is identified.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO’s website at https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National

Forecasting

AEMO

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

This follows from Linton’s earlier ‘Snippets from AEMO’s summer readiness briefing for 2024-25’.