Price volatility starts early, on Thursday 7th November 2024

Posted by Paul McArdle Thursday, November 7 2024 Topic: 2024-11-07

This morning we noted the ‘Possibility of volatility in QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024’.  This followed:

1)  our note on Tuesday that ‘LOR2 notices continue to flash for NSW and QLD for this Thursday 7th Nov 2024’…

2)  … which also followed Saturday’s note about ‘Forecast tight supply-demand balance (i.e. LOR2) for QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024’.

 

So it was telegraphed in advance via AEMO’s forecasts, but I was not anticipating it happening as early as this spike at 14:25 (NEM time) in NSW as seen in NEMwatch, with the NSW spot price above $14,000/MWh:

2024-11-07-at-14-25-NEMwatch-NSW-at-14322bucks

As highlighted, note the speed in afternoon ramp in ‘Market Demand’ across the NEM from 13:35 (18,399MW) to 13:50 (19,570MW) … i.e. 1,171MW over 15 minutes.

We’d expect it won’t be limited to this dispatch interval through the afternoon and evening.

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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2 Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. Small (NEM Mainland) frequency wobble, on Thursday afternoon 7th November 2024 - WattClarity
  2. Three dispatch intervals (sampled from a long run of volatility on Thursday 7th November 2024) to illustrate the complexity (and significance) of congestion - WattClarity

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