This morning we noted the ‘Possibility of volatility in QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024’. This followed:
1) our note on Tuesday that ‘LOR2 notices continue to flash for NSW and QLD for this Thursday 7th Nov 2024’…
2) … which also followed Saturday’s note about ‘Forecast tight supply-demand balance (i.e. LOR2) for QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024’.
So it was telegraphed in advance via AEMO’s forecasts, but I was not anticipating it happening as early as this spike at 14:25 (NEM time) in NSW as seen in NEMwatch, with the NSW spot price above $14,000/MWh:
As highlighted, note the speed in afternoon ramp in ‘Market Demand’ across the NEM from 13:35 (18,399MW) to 13:50 (19,570MW) … i.e. 1,171MW over 15 minutes.
We’d expect it won’t be limited to this dispatch interval through the afternoon and evening.
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