Apologies to readers here for what might seen a short (perhaps cryptic and unsatisfying) article that’s intended to augment the discussion in the deeper review of 2024 Q2.
Here’s a trend of calculated NEM-wide IRPM over a 9-day period in June 2024 …
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
Available Generation in QLD has been quite the see-saw following the imposition of Administered Pricing on Sunday evening, 12th June 2022. This is the 3rd occasion this evening we see ‘Actual LOR2’ warning.
Can someone outline how semi-sched and batteries are treated in this calculation please? For very little variation in Market Demand, the IRPM seems to be almost precisely out of phase with maximum generation. Not unsurprising, but if this IRPM is calculated assuming charged batteries and predicted wind then once you get down around 10% you really are only a hiccup away from a problem – particularly in a region unable to be supported via a transmission constrained market. Gets even more precarious if some of your assumed generation is coal that has been decommitted for a few days and is now cold.
Can someone outline how semi-sched and batteries are treated in this calculation please? For very little variation in Market Demand, the IRPM seems to be almost precisely out of phase with maximum generation. Not unsurprising, but if this IRPM is calculated assuming charged batteries and predicted wind then once you get down around 10% you really are only a hiccup away from a problem – particularly in a region unable to be supported via a transmission constrained market. Gets even more precarious if some of your assumed generation is coal that has been decommitted for a few days and is now cold.