Linton’s already posted a short note ‘Energy Price Volatility in NSW on 7th May 2024’, but the volatility has continued through into the next hour – so thought it was worth adding a snapshot from NEMwatch for the 18:30 dispatch interval this evening:
Briefly, with respect to the numbered annotations:
1) Spot price in this dispatch interval is at $14,100/MWh in NSW:
(a) well above the other regions
(b) so it’s been above $1,000/MWh almost continuously since 17:15
2) The fuel mix shows hydro has cranked up to supply on top of coal (and a bit of gas) with low wind and solar having set for the autumn evening.
3) A key point here is that the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is stuck with zero flow:
(a) both import and export limit set at 0MW,
(b) with flows south due to negative residue management
(c) but flows restricted north by the ‘N::N_CTYS_2’ constraint equation (i.e. not shown in NEMwatch but visible in ez2view).
i. This constraint equation is part of the ‘N-CTYS_3L_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set
ii. which relates to an outage on the Collector – Yass (3L) 330kV line [with Wagga-Yass 132kV parallel lines CLOSED].
4) QNI and Directlink are both flowing south, but with both also affected by lower import limits
5) There’s an ‘Actual LOR1’ condition in NSW as noted in MN116513, as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 07/05/2024 17:46:36
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 116513
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 07/05/2024
External Reference : Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the NSW region – 07/05/2024
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the NSW region – 07/05/2024
An Actual LOR1 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region from 1730 hrs.
The Actual LOR1 condition is forecast to exist until 1900 hrs
The capacity reserve requirement is 1450 MW
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1366 MW
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
6) Also worth noting the continuation of the planned outage of the Dapto to Marulan 330kV line, which is feeding into the ‘N-DTMN_8_15M’ constraint set
7) Also worth noting that there was (earlier) a ‘Forecast LOR2’ condition for NSW tomorrow (Wed 8th May 2024) … noted in MN116502 but then cancelled.
We’ll no doubt delve further into this incident in the detailed review for 2024 Q2, when we start the compilation process at the end of the quarter.
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