Spot price volatility in South Australia on Thursday evening 9th Nov 2023

A quick (and somewhat cryptic) article with a snapshot from ez2view time-travelled back to 19:00 yesterday (i.e. Thursday 9th November 2023, remembering NEM time) to provide a record of some spot price volatility that’s featured in some conversations:

Note that:

1)  The interconnectors are limited:

(a)  the ‘V::S_SETB_TBSE_2’ constraint equation (inside the ‘S-TBSE’ outage-related constraint set) is limiting flow west on Heywood, and

(b)  the ‘V^^SML_NIL_3’ constraint equation is limiting flow west on Murraylink.

2)  Solar has gone to bed;

3)  And wind is relatively low … and lower than expected (as seen below).

Here’s another snapshot from ez2view – this one including three different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets that help to paint the picture of what was expected ahead of time:

Remember this widget allows to ‘look up a vertical’ to see ‘that other dimension of time’.

Here’s a filtered, trended bid stack view (SA Generators + WDRU, but excluding Wind and Solar), looking back 2 days in ‘Bids & Offers’ widget:

Visible shifting of volume into higher-priced bid bands (i.e. into the reddish colours).

No other comments at this point… but might refer back to this later.