Case Study of Tuesday 16th February 2021 (Part 1) … large instance of collective over-performance for Semi-Scheduled units

This weekend we’ve already posted three articles highlighting instances of large collective Aggregate Raw Off-Target (in either direction) across the existing fleet of Semi-Scheduled assets:

1)  For the upcoming GenInsights Quarterly Updates for Q1 2023 we noted extremes during the quarter at either end:

(a)  On Friday 20th January 2023 we saw several large deviations of collective over-performance; and

(b)  On Friday 3rd February 2023 we saw two sequential deviations of collective under-performance (in megawatt terms, larger than the above).

2)  Prior to that quarter, we also noted:

(a)  On Tuesday 23rd August 2022 we noted a large collective over-performance at 13:15 on that day

  … at that time the AggROT was –650MW…

(b)  So in a last article for this evening, we also would like to highlight the larger collective over-performance seen at 16:45 on Tuesday 16th February 2021:

… at this time, the AggROT was –652MW … so:

i.  Slightly larger than that seen later on Tuesday 23rd August 2022; and also

ii.  A ‘largest ever’ incidence of collective over-performance at that time (but also a record that still stands at the end of Q1 2023).

Here’s a similar view of what happened across each of the 288 x dispatch intervals in the day:

If time permits we might be able to come back and look more specifically – and, if we do, articles will be collated under this category.