As I noted all too recently, it used to be the case that LOR3 conditions (i.e. controlled Load Shedding) were rare as hens teeth … even just in terms of them being forecast.

However this afternoon in Market Notice 96633 we are confronted with another warning from the AEMO as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     30/05/2022     15:47:24

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Notice ID               :         96633
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         30/05/2022
External Reference      :         STPASA – Suspect Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) and Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3)  in the QLD Region on 06/06/2022

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO considers that there are suspect Forecast LOR2 and LOR3 conditions for the QLD region for the following periods:

LOR2:
1. From 0600 hrs to 0700 hrs 06/06/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 443 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 64 MW.

2. From 0730 hrs to 0900 hrs 06/06/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 443 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 183 MW.

3. From 1530 hrs to 1700 hrs 06/06/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 443 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 150 MW.

4. From 2030 hrs to 2300 hrs 06/06/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 435 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 8 MW.

LOR3:
1. From 0700 hrs to 0730 hrs 06/06/2022.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 67 MW at 0700 hrs.

2. From 1700 hrs to 2030 hrs 06/06/2022.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 547 MW at 1730 hrs.

AEMO is currently investigating these forecast LOR2 and LOR3 conditions to confirm whether they are valid.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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We’ll be watching this with keen interest!

PS at ~17:30

At 16:48 the AEMO published Market Notice 96634 that noted ‘input errors’ were the reason for the heart palpitations…

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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 30/05/2022 16:48:09

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Notice ID : 96634
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 30/05/2022
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the suspect Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) and Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) condition in the QLD Region on 06/06/2022

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The suspect LOR2 and LOR3 conditions advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 96633 have been reviewed.

AEMO considers these forecast LOR2 and LOR3 conditions invalid due to input errors.

No LOR2 and LOR3 conditions are currently forecast for the QLD region.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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